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Posted at 10:40 AM EST.

7:15 PM EST. This might be the best bet on the MLB menu today. The Cardinals have quietly turned into a force since they fired Mike Matheny a month ago. Matheny had a reputation for rubbing players the wrong way and put the Cardinals offense in a box by deploying unsuccessful lineups and constantly toying with the moving pieces — which also hurt the defense because he would play guys in positions they couldn’t field to get their bat into the game. He was unimaginative in the style of play his team used, refusing to dust off the hit-and-run or hitting behind the runner in favor of waiting around for home runs to be hit.

By contrast, interim manager Mike Shildt has been able to free things up by getting the runners moving on the bases. He gave the batting order some consistency and helped players develop roles. The bullpen is another major factor in the turnaround. It was so bad that the team basically cleaned house, figuring anyone would be better than what they had in the relief corps. And the front office wasn’t wrong. The team was instantly better when Greg Holland was given his walking papers. It didn’t hurt when Brett Cecil was sent to the disabled list. It was good for the team both in the short haul and the long run to give Class AAA star Dakota Hudson a chance to get his feet wet in the major leagues pitching in relief. He’s risen to the occasion, being nothing short of spectacular. Carlos Martinez is now in the pen.

Shildt has given Harrison Bader a chance to play every day and the results have been excellent. Since the trade deadline, Bader is a .325 hitter that hits doubles and steals bases. He’s also a much better outfielder than Tommy Pham (just off the DL) in the categories of range, throwing and baseball smarts. Tyler O’Neill is back from the disabled list, but the amount of playing time he receives in the coming weeks is in question. Simply put, things have changed since he landed on the DL in early August. The club has significantly narrowed the gap for a postseason berth in recent days. The man O’Neill was set to replace—Jose Martinez —has been one of the Cards biggest offensive catalysts this month (.388/.444/.510 slash line). Even though O’Neill can top Martinez in defensive acumen, he is unlikely to match the elder option in terms of offensive prowess. So, while O’Neill remains an exciting long-term option, he may have to settle for a reserve role until the team suffers an injury or someone goes cold.

Very quietly, the Cardinals have won nine of 10 and 17 of their past 21 games. The clubhouse has gone from being discontent to cohesive and enthusiastic. The Cardinals have scored four runs or more in nine straight games and six runs or more in five of those. This is a team on fire that cannot wait to get back to the park today and the best part is that it’s a huge pitching mismatch in the Cardinals favor.

Miles Mikolas continues to deliver quality start after quality start. Here’s a guy with a 12-3 record and a 2.85 ERA after 24 starts. He’s been consistently effective all season and while his xERA is higher than his ERA, that would be nitpicking. Mikolas has also been outstanding at home with a 2.29/3.41 ERA/xERA split. With a high groundball rate and pinpoint control, he’s proven difficult to string together hits against.

The reason the Cards are taking back such a nice number spotting 1½ runs is because Wade Miley comes in with an elite 2.23 ERA after eight starts and a 2.17 road ERA after five starts. The market eats up surface ERA’s but we’re here to tell you that Wade Miley is the luckiest paid pitcher on the planet. He’s terrible and his xERA of 5.97 backs that up. Miley has a BB/K split of 19/22 in 40 innings (!) His first pitch strike rate is a weak 51% and it was 43% last game. Miley’s charmed life is about to fall completely apart, as his consistently high hit %, paired with his terrible control (including MLB-high 93 BB last year) is in line for the ultimate disaster. His strand rate of 88% has kept his lucky head above water but it’s about to buckle under the pressure of nearly two runners per inning. Even a drop in walks wouldn't wouldn’t save this stiff and against the hottest team in baseball, this is such a great spot for Miley to get exposed for the extremely weak pitcher that he is.

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