Detroit @ MINNESOTA
Detroit +160 over MINNESOTA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +158 BET365 +160 SportsInteraction +160 5DIMES +159

Posted at 10:40 AM EST.

8:05 PM EST. A former Rays 7th rounder from 2011, Ryan Carpenter (LHP) ended up in the Tigers organization this past offseason after four years with the Rockies. A 6’5”, 210-pound lefthander out of Gonzaga, Carpenter is a four-pitch guy without plus stuff but a solid ability to locate what he does have. His fastball works 88-92 and there’s little room for error, but he’s able to add and subtract from it as well as locate it in and around the zone. He also features a curve, slider, and change and he’s able to effectively mix and match all of his pitches. The 27-year-old does tend to live up in the zone as he’s given up 86 career knocks in 760.1 IP and surrendered 19 of them last year for Triple-A Albuquerque, but he also flashed 9.3 K’s/9 and was named All-PCL for his dominating performance. Yes, the PCL is a power-inflated league, but the similarities to the majors in this regard should caution ascribing his struggles to league effects. There’s a lot less room for error in the majors high-HR environment.

Carpenter has appeared in four games for the Tigers this season but they came before June 1. He made three starts and one relief appearance and surrendered four jacks and 17 hits in just 12.2 innings before being sent back down. Sometimes, the second act is better than the first but we’ll see. We’re not expecting much out of Carpenter and understand that he could get whacked. However, he and the Tigers are not spotting a stupid price. That honor belongs to the Twinkies and their just as bad or maybe worse starter.

Generally, you’re hoping for better than a career 3.4 BB’s/9 and 6.4 K’s over 550+ IP out of a first-round arm. You generally protect them in the Rule 5 draft lest they get drafted. Kohl Stewart (RHP) wasn’t protected this last offseason nor was he drafted. That’s where the 23-year-old Stewart stands after seven seasons in the organization. At 6’3” and 195 pounds, Stewart was a standout quarterback who had a scholarship on offer from Texas A&M but took $4.5 million from the Twins and signed. He operates with a fastball that sits either 94 or 91 depending on his grip. Stewart relies heavily on his two-seamer and doesn’t sequence the rest of his pitches well due to that overreliance. At Double-A Chattanooga this year, he was still too hittable with a .301 oppBA and that trend continued after his promotion to Triple-A Rochester with a .300 oppBA. There have been some makeup concerns associated with Stewart as well, as there are some rumblings about him returning to football. He started a game last week against these same Tigers and was tagged for eight hits in 4.1 frames while striking out one batter. His swing and miss rate was 3% with a 48% first-pitch strike rate. He’ll now face the Tigers again and they’ve seen him and abused him. Today, Stewart and the Twins are spotting a price that is reserved for quality starters on good baseball teams, thus, playing the Tigers is the definition of true value.

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Our Pick

Detroit +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110