Toronto @ N.Y. YANKEES
Toronto +165 over N.Y. YANKEES

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +165 ET365 +160 SportsInteraction +160 5DIMES +159

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Marcus Stroman's (RHP) supposed 2017 breakout is a distant memory these days with his August ERA almost double last year's 3.09. What's led to such a disastrous season? Bad luck and bad health. Skillswise, Stroman isn't all that different than he was a year ago. The strikeout rate is nearly identical. He's walking a few more hitters, but his control is better since coming off the DL in June. Stroman's batted ball profile hasn't changed; he's still a groundball machine with an elite 63% rate and a just as elite 13% line-drive rate. An unfavorable strand rate explains a lot of the variance between ERA and xERA. First, it's important to realize that Stroman's 2017 success was fueled by good luck; specifically a favorable strand %. It's the opposite story this year and so if all things are equal, Stroman could be in line for some very strong outings the rest of the way. Stroman will now face a Yankees’ nine that scored once yesterday, once the day before and now they’re 10½ games back of the Red Sox with their previously secure looking Wild Card spot being in jeopardy, as the Mariners are just 2½ back. Without Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, the Yanks offense has been average but far below that when facing a quality starter. For the first time all year, the Yanks are hearing footsteps and are playing under some pressure.

The New York media, who treat every game as a playoff game and then scrutinizes it play by play, has called Lance Lynn “the great pickup” because like just about everyone else, they, too, focus on results and nothing else. Since being traded to the Yankees Lance Lynn (RHP) has a 0.54 ERA over three starts covering 16.2 innings. Accolades are being thrown his way left, right and center but let others buy high and into the hype because those results come with plenty of reasons for concern. Lynn is falling behind just about every single hitter he faces. His first-pitch strike rate since he became a Yankee is 44%. In those 16.2 innings, Lynn has posted a 1.54 WHIP and a 38% hard-hit ball rate. That does not correlate to a 0.54 ERA but a 88% strand rate does. Lance Lynn has been the luckiest paid pitcher on earth the past couple of weeks but his xERA of 4.92 is more than four runs higher than his actual ERA. He posted an ERA close to five with the Twins prior to getting traded. If Lance Lynn was still on the Twins and the Blue Jays were in Minnesota tonight with Stroman going, the game would be near a pick-em but because he’s on the Yanks, one will pay a massive premium to bet on Lance Lynn today. The Blue Jays have been an above-average offense against RHP and Toronto scored six runs in five innings when facing Lynn on April 30. If you spot -165 with Lance Lynn to beat Marcus Stroman, you may cash the ticket but there’s nothing we have to offer you.

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Our Pick

Toronto +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110