N.Y. Mets @ BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE -1½ +176 over N.Y. Mets

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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. After a one-day, one-game stop across the street in the Bronx to play the Yanks, the New York Mets will now travel to Baltimore to play a team that is about 200 games under .500 and that they rarely see or care about. One really has to question what will motivate the Mets here for one lousy game in Baltimore with a weekend series against the rival Phillies on deck beginning tomorrow. Incidentally, the Mets played their hearts out last night in the Bronx and beat the Yankees in a game the New York media will be talking about until the Yankees next pitch. Baseball is a big deal in New York. Seriously, the Mets couldn’t give a flying f**k about this inconvenient stop for one game in Baltimore. 

To make matters worse for the Metropolitans, Jason Vargas and his 34%/41% groundball/fly-ball split will take the mound at this extremely hitter-friendly yard. Vargas is now an “old” 35-years of age with over 1500 MLB innings to wear out a rather pedestrian arm to begin with. Vargas has made just 12 starts this year and has only pitched 47 innings. Last year’s “success” was fueled entirely by a 1st half deluge of run support and luck. His early xERA told us it wouldn't last and sure enough, he imploded in the 2nd half and hasn’t stopped imploding since. Steadily mediocre and declining skills the last three healthy years confirm he's still the back-end rotation guy we've come to expect. Jason Vargas favored or evenly priced on the road, at home or anywhere else for that matter is a must fade proposition. Situationally speaking, this is as bad a spot for an “also-ran” that we’ve seen all season. 

Of course, if one is questioning the Mets motivation, the same thing must be asked of the Orioles. There is a difference and we’re suggesting that the just-got-much-younger O’s will be playing their hearts out the rest of the way. The Orioles are the worst team in baseball. Their longtime incumbent center fielder, Adam Jones, is on the backside of his peak, a pending free agent, and perhaps no longer a viable defensive center fielder. One of their top prospects, Cedric Mullins, is a center fielder more or less ready for The Show. Unlike their Canadian division mates, Baltimore is actually prioritizing player development here instead of service time manipulation, so they’ve brought Mullins up for a trial run. Mullins is hitting .444 since being called up.

Despite only being listed at 5-foot-8 and 175 pounds, Mullins has developed into a well-rounded, all-around offensive and defensive prospect. He combines strong bat speed and barrel control from the left side of the plate, enough that he projects as an above-average hitter. He’s also another one of these compact hitters that’s developed some uppercut power on a muscular frame. Think Jose Altuve. That is who scouts have compared him to.

The door has also opened for Renato Nunez's status as the regular 3B, where he has started in 17 of 21 games since joining the team. Nunez is showing above-average discipline/eye/xBA at the plate and he’s certainly a good defensive player too. The point is that the Orioles have brought in an influx of enthusiasm and youth to close out the year and even though they have lost five straight, the last four came against the Red Sox and the Orioles battled Boston to the final out in each game. Finally, Andrew Cashner isn’t good but he’s superior to Jason Vargas and that’s all that needs to be said about him. This is a great situational play on the Orioles spotting runs and taking back a big price in the process.

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Our Pick

BALTIMORE -1½ +176 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.52)

Arizona -101 over St. Louis