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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Yesterday we wrote that if the Tigers were favored, we would be playing the White Sox on the reverse run line and so this is that day. Once again we have two shaky starters opposing one another but trust us when we suggest that Blaine Hardy has little upside while Lucas Giolito has nothing but upside.

The Tigers rotation and practically their entire pitching staff is a mess right now. Jacob Turner was hammered for five earned runs and six hits in one inning in his Aug. 7 spot start after the Mike Fiers' trade to Oakland left a rotation vacancy. Southpaw Blaine Hardy's grip on a rotation slot tightened with Turner's disastrous performance. Hardy has been starting as the replacement for the injured Michael Fulmer, who hopes to return from the DL before September. Hardy's 68% first-pitch strike rate validates his solid control but he has a pedestrian strikeout rate (54 K’s in 74 IP) and his substantial ERA/xERA gap of 3.63/4.96 suggests his ERA is extremely likely to rise. Blaine Hardy is a 31-year old, mostly career minor-leaguer that is nothing but a fill in right now while the Tigers rebuild.

Like always, this market will place heavy emphasis on misleading surface numbers. Lucas Giolito comes into this start with a 6.23 ERA and 1.50 WHIP after 23 starts. That said, Giolito has dominated MLB hitters in the past and even last season, he dominated his last seven starts for the South Side. Giolito stands 6'6" and weighs 255 pounds. He has perhaps one of the best two-pitch combinations in the game with his fastball/curve. His plus-plus fastball is heavy and lively and sits in the mid-90s. The curveball is a sharp two-plane offering that is also plus. His change-up has improved, giving him three good pitches. He has a clean, repeatable delivery and he pitches downhill. The problem with Giolito is control. When he’s walking guys, he gets into big trouble but that’s a risk one has to take from time to time and it’s a risk that’s warranted here because of the opposition and the price. When Giolito is throwing strikes, he’s as nasty and difficult to hit as any pitcher in the game. In seven starts at the end of last year for an awful team, Giolito went 3-3 with a 2.38 ERA and he’s going down that same path this year. He had posted a 3.19 ERA over his previous five starts prior to getting whacked by the Yankees in his last start. Giolito is coming along slowly. His first-pitch strike rate of 58% over his last 10 starts is a good sign because it was at 52% for most of the year. Like yesterday, the winner of the this game is likely going to win by two or more because we have two weak bullpens and two shaky starters so we’ll put our faith in the starter with much more upside.

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