Houston @ COLORADO
COLORADO +190 over Houston

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +190 BET365 +180 SportsInteraction +180 5DIMES +186

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. Justin Verlander (RHP) and the Astronauts are so overvalued here that we must play the Rockies. Verlander is 11-7 with a 2.50 ERA but what his surace ERA doesn’t tell you is that his 86.5% strand rate is the highest strand % in the majors. Furthermore, Verlander’s 29%/53% groundball/fly-ball rates means he’s playing with fire and so are those that get behind him at this price. We’re not suggesting that Verlander is a fluke or that’s he’s about to blow up. This is a veteran starter with good stuff and a pitching IQ that is off the charts. However, we saw him go cold for a couple of years before and prior to those problems, he was showing the same danger signs as he is now. A few numbers in his batted profile suggest some caution. His groundball rate (29%) and HR/f (5%) are both career lows. As soft % regresses, those fly balls will do more damage. The other number that suggests caution is not in his stat line but in his bio. At age 35 he is reliving skills from his twenties. When something seems too good to be true it usually is. Verlander has been amazing, but just as no one would have predicted this breakout, we would not now predict it to continue all year.

German Marquez (RHP) has thrown a dominant start in two of his last three starts and has flashed some very impressive skills over his last seven starts (2.64 xERA, 55% grounders, 10.8 K’s/9 with outstanding control). In 11 starts on the road this season he is 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 67 innings. German Marquez pitches half his games aty the worst pitcher’s park in the history of MLB. He’s dominating, he’s legit and he’s being offered nearly 2-1 odds. Pencil us in for that.

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Our Pick

COLORADO +190 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.80)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110