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Posted at 9:15 AM EST.

4:05 PM EST. The jury's still out on Joe Musgrove’s (RHP) long-term role, but his skills blossomed from the bullpen in the 2nd half of last year. Musgrove pairs strong control with a solid ground game. He also missed the first two months of the season with a right shoulder strain, but he has since compiled a 3.41 ERA in 74 innings since and looks to be poised for a strong finish. Musgrove has a lengthy history of elite control. His first-pitch strike rate in his last game was 88% and it’s now 76% overall. With four pitches garnering a swing and miss rate of 13% or better, including an impressive change-up/curve combo (swing and miss rate change-up/curve: 20%/18%), Musgrove misses plenty of bats. His swing and miss rates suggests some additional strikeout rate upside. Our check-in with Musgrove highlights his substantial profit potential and he and the Pirates are absolutely worth getting behind against this very beatable host and its overvalued starter.   

Dereck Rodriguez (RHP) is a great story, but the skills don't match the surface stats. Rodriguez has compiled an impressive early ERA (2.34) but that's been due more to good fortune with his strand rate and hr/f than skill. D-Rod’s xERA is starting to skyrocket (4.71 over his last three starts). Rodriguez’s command has been good but there's been reason to question that, too, as his low walk rate doesn't have support from his first-pitch strike rate, which has been below average. With a below average swing and miss rate, he's unlikely to raise his strikeouts, so if his walks go up, things could get ugly fast. You don't have to look further than his 2017 minor-league numbers  to see an example of that. Over his last five starts, his sub-indicators have been even worse with a 52% first-pitch strike rate and a 9% swing and miss rate. He's had a slight ground ball lean thus far, but in Double-A and Triple-A, he posted fly ball rates around 45%. If his major league fly-ball rate starts moving in that direction, it would add even more risk to his shaky skill set. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over his last three starts was an ugly 31%/31%/38%. Dereck Rodriguez has drawn some media attention because he's Ivan Rodriguez's son and only converted to pitching in 2014 after a failed attempt to make it as an outfielder. At this point in the season there are red flags galore surrounding his profile and now that there is plenty of film and info on him, the adjustment period for MLB hitters getting to know him is over. It is now time to sell on D-Rod’s extremely misleading surface ERA and watch the profits roll in.  

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