Seattle @ HOUSTON
HOUSTON -1½ +109 over Seattle

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +109 BET365 -1½ +105 SportsInteraction -1½ +100 5DIMES -1½ +105

Posted at 9:15 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Getting burned by the Astronauts last night is not going to deter us from coming right back on them here with Charlie Morton (RHP) going. Morton quietly owns some of the best stats and skills of any pitcher during the past 12 months. He has a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP since the start of July 2017, marks that come with the backing of a very strong skills foundation: 10.9 K’s/9, 3.2 BB’s/9, 51% GB%, 3.10 xERA. With a steady mid-90s fastball and groundball tilt, Morton has the tools to keep his run going. By contrast, Wade Leblanc (LHP) does not have the skills to keep his run going.

LeBlanc has been one of the bright spots in the AL since joining the Seattle rotation in May, and his sparkling 3.19 ERA on July 4 would sit just outside the league top 10 with enough innings to qualify. But did this journeyman lefty really find something new this year? A skills analysis says no fu**ing way. LeBlanc's xERA is 5.39, which is right in line with his recent-year numbers. While his control has been outstanding, the soft-tossing LeBlanc's K-rate and swinging strikes both leave something to be desired and are also right at career norms. Leblanc throws 86 MPH on his best day. His swinging strike rate over his last 10 starts is 5%. The main difference for LeBlanc, besides throwing a few more first-pitch strikes is a lucky 79% strand rate, which is well above what you'd expect from a relatively low-strikeout pitcher. Finally, LeBlanc has been thoroughly pummeled by Houston bats in 3-of-4 appearances this season. Astros’ hitters own an aggregate .439/.475/.930 (1.405) line against this imposter.

PLEASE NOTE: One of the unique things about our website is that we provide write-ups every single day on every game we post. We’re not sure if everyone understands how time consuming that is and how difficult it is as well but if you do not, please try it one day and you’ll see.

That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.

This is a feature that you will see on our home page with the other wagers and we’ll also tweet it out when our add-ons have been posted.

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Our Pick

HOUSTON -1½ +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110