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San Diego @ MILWAUKEE
San Diego +160 over MILWAUKEE

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +160 BET365 +155 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +156

Posted at 12:15 PM EST.

2:10 PM EST. We ripped up our ticket on the Padres last night after Brett Kennedy got whacked in his major league debut but that’s the risk you take when getting behind a first-time starter. That loss is not going to deter us from fading Junior Guerra (RHP) and the Brewers at a significant price in an unfavorable situation. You see, this is an afternoon game. Afterward, the Crew will embark on what could be a season-defining road trip for three series in Atlanta, Chicago (Cubs) and St. Louis respectively. Prepping for such an important and extended trip is consuming to be sure. This is absolutely a game the Crew could get caught napping in and their starter is an average one at best.  

Guerra (RHP) is coming off a very nice start against the Rockies but prior to that, he was hit hard in four straight games. His 4.7 BB’s/9 in July led to a 4.77 xERA and 1.60 WHIP. His hard-contact rate has increased from 34% in 2017 to 43% in 2018 and it’s not improving. What we have with Guerra is a falling first-pitch strike/control damaged WHIP, a jump in fly-ball percentage to 42% to overtake his groundball rate of 37% and four shaky outings in his last five starts. We saw a similar pattern with him last season when he was demoted to the pen in September.

Robert Erlin (LHP) hurled a strong start against the Cubs in Chicago in his first start since May, allowing only one earned runs in five full innings. Erlin threw a season-high 79 pitches his last time out after spending most of the year in the pen. There is a chance that Erlin will be extended even more here. Regardless, Erlin has walked a mere seven batters in 65 innings. The ability to pitch to spots and control walks has served Erlin well his entire career and now he brings an elite 61% groundball rate over his last five outings to this start. Erlin also has 54 K’s in those 65 innings and he’ll face a Brewers’ squad that are league-average at home with an OPS that ranks 11th and just below average versus LHP.

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That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.

This is a feature that you will see on our home page with the other wagers and we’ll also tweet it out when our add-ons have been posted.

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Our Pick

San Diego +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)

 

 

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