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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. The Padres are having a terrible year but every year in every sport there are under and over-achievers and we promise you that San Diego’s parts are better than the sum. This is definitely a team to watch out for over the next few years and maybe, just maybe they’ll provide us with some nice profits the rest of the way. The Friars saw the ball well last night at this park in an 11-5 win and we’re willing to roll the dice with them here, as Milwaukee’s starter, Jhoulys Chacin (RHP) cannot be favored in this range.

Chacin surprisingly posted a sub-4.00 ERA in 2017, and given his soft skills, looked like a prime regression candidate heading into 2018. Instead, he's lowered his ERA down to 3.89 through 24 starts but it appears that he’s still pitching way over his head. His control has been shaky with 52 walks in 132 frames or 3½ walks per game. In his last start, Chacin walked four and struck out three. With a shaky first-pitch strike rate, The walks aren't going away. Chacin has lost 1.6 MPH off his fastball from April, May and June and has struck out only 18 percent of the batters he's faced. Don't count on a strikeout-rate surge from a tiring starter with a 7% swing and miss rate over his last six starts, Even though he's in a home park that increases LHB HR by 31 percent and RHB HR by 8 percent, a very low percentage of fly balls against him have left the park. Speaking of home parks, Chacin enjoyed a 1.79 ERA in 16 starts at Petco Park in 2017, compared to a 6.53 mark on the road. This year, he has a 3.46 ERA at home and 4.16 on the road, but considering the hitter-friendly conditions at Miller Park, he's unlikely to keep it that low. Chacin has put up solid surface numbers so far in 2018, but his skills are as soft as ever and he's benefited from quite a bit of good fortune. Pay more attention to his xERA of 4.72, which is even higher (6.44 xERA) over his last five starts, Chacin's success at home or anywhere for that matter figures to come to an end in the not-too-distant future, and he looks like a long shot to post a sub-4.00 ERA from this point forward. The Chacin fade is on.

Brett Kennedy (RHP), San Diego’s 2017 Pitcher of the Year, has done nothing but dominate the hitting-friendly Pacific Coast League this year and on the back of a 10-0 record and 2.72 ERA, has earned his first trip to the majors. At 6’0” and 200 pounds, the 11th-rounder out of Fordham (2015) has moved quickly. Kennedy is effective at mixing and matching his four pitches. There’s a low-90s four-seamer as well as a sinker, and a slider and change, both fringe-average. Kennedy does well keeping the ball down, relying more and more on the sinker, leading to a 52.6% groundball rate this year alongside a .233 oppBA. The 24-year-old will never be a velocity guy, and while he’s hovered around a strikeout per inning in his minor league career, that rate is sure to drop in the majors, as he’s more of a pitchability guy. That said, Kennedy is trending in the right direction, as he reaches the majors and San Diego has no reason to not try him out. Kennedy’s career line is decent (402.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 2.8 BB’s/9, 8.9 K’s/9, 33 HR, .245 oppBA, 1.23 WHIP) but we’re very interested in this year’s outstanding numbers in the very difficult and hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League at El Paso (AAA): 16 g, 10-0, 2.72 ERA, 89.1 IP, 2.3 BB’s/9, 8.1 K’s/9, 6 HR, .233 oppBA, 1.12 WHIP

Obviously the Brewers have never faced Kennedy and that, too, works to our advantage. Nice overlay here.

PLEASE NOTE: One of the unique things about our website is that we provide write-ups every single day on every game we post. We’re not sure if everyone understands how time consuming that is and how difficult it is as well but if you do not, please try it one day and you’ll see.

That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.

This is a feature that you will see on our home page with the other wagers and we’ll also tweet it out when our add-ons have been posted.

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