BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -107 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -105

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

3:35 PM EST. Dallas Keuchel (LHP) is seemingly pitching great lately, as he is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA over his last five starts, albeit while having a 3.93 xERA. In 12 road starts this season, he is 6-4 with a 3.12 ERA. Keuchel is obviously not as good as he was in his two years of dominance but he’s steady and reliable and that’s good enough to get our money here. Missing fewer bats with his change-up (19% swing and miss rate) and slider (12%) has dropped his swing and miss rate but a consistent first-pitch strike rate and throwing three of his five offerings in the zone more often is the real key here. Although he has limited LHH to a 25% hard-contact rate with a 61% groundball rate, a 37% hit% and 30% hr/f vs. LHH have contributed to a .781 oOPS. With a little better hit % luck and hr/f swing, he could move closer to his .609 career-oOPS vs. LHH. Keuchel has an elite groundball rate and has five different pitches in his arsenal. That’s why he’s so reliable.

We started fading Madison Bumgarner two starts ago and we are 1-1 in those wagers. In his last start against the Diamondbacks in Arizona, Bumgarner went five full and allowed just one run in an easy 8-1 San Fran victory. We’re going to go over that start to emphasize how in-game variance and luck plays a part.

In the very first inning, Bumgarner loaded them up with one out and Steven Sousa came to the plate. On a 1-0 count, Souza ripped a shot into the hole between short and third but Evan Longoria made one of the best catches on a line shot (a sure double) that you’ll ever see to prevent two runs, maybe three, and also prevent the D-Backs from having men on 2nd and third with two runs already in and still just one out. That one pitch and catch changed the entire landscape of that game but MadBum would tread water throughout. He allowed seven hits and walked three in five innings, while posting a 5.88 xERA and a playing with fire 2.00 WHIP. We wrote two extensive reports on Bumgarner’s declining skills, which you can read about here. Our attack on him will be relentless until the market adjusts or until he regains his skills. There are no signs of either here. This market will put heavy emphasis on Madison Bumgarner’s fortunate 2.01 ERA at home and provide us with a great number on the vastly superior team. Truth is, Bumgarner has tossed a pure quality effort in just two of his 11 starts and his skills have not been sharp (4.47 xERA, shaky control) and the Astros average 5.5 runs per game on the road where their .790 OPS is second best in MLB.

PLEASE NOTE: One of the unique things about our website is that we provide write-ups every single day on every game we post. We’re not sure if everyone understands how time consuming that is and how difficult it is as well but if you do not, please try it one day and you’ll see.

That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.

This is a feature that you will see on our home page with the other wagers and we’ll also tweet it out when our add-ons have been posted.

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