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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

9:40 PM EST. We’re rolling the dice here against Zack Greinke (RHP), fully aware that he’s capable of throwing a gem. The reason we’re doing so is because there is such great value on Philadelphia’s starter today that it’s worth the risk. This is once again a case of surface stats being very misleading on a starter that we’re getting a pretty sweet takeback on.

Believe it or not, Nick Pivetta (RHP) was the most skilled starting pitcher in the NL during the month of July, and into August, a fact that likely was lost in his 5.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP he posted in July. His skills featured a lethal combination of missed bats and pinpoint control. Dude struck out 13.1 batters per nine, while walking two batters per nine. Now throw in a 52% groundball rate and a league leading 2.46 xERA since July 1. Pivetta's upper-tier command sub-indicators supported his elite skill base: 13% swing and miss rate, 65% first-pitch strike, 35% ball%. The Diamondbacks own a poor .232 BA and .699 OPS when facing right-handed pitching and you will not find a pitcher in baseball that is throwing the ball better than Nick Pivetta. Pivetta’s strand rate over his last five starts is a ridiculously low and unlucky 55%, which is what has torpedoed his surface stats. We’re the beneficiaries of that luck-driven stat. It is rare to get a price like this on a starter this good and it’s all because his surface stats indicate something else. The Phillies came in here last night and took a 2-0 lead to the bottom of the ninth but blew it when Arizona tied it with two runs and then won it in the 14th. We like fading these walk-off winners the next day, as they are often flat after a jubilation win.

PLEASE NOTE: One of the unique things about our website is that we provide write-ups every single day on every game we post. We’re not sure if everyone understands how time consuming that is and how difficult it is as well but if you do not, please try it one day and you’ll see.

That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.

This is a feature that you will see on our home page with the other wagers and we’ll also tweet it out when our add-ons have been posted.

Open an account today at and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.