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Posted at 9:15 AM EST.

8:05 PM EST. The Seattle Mariners regression hasn’t fully kicked in yet but it will and one might want to consider fading them often the rest of the way. We touched on this a bit last month and we’ll go over it again. You see, the M’s are 16 games over .500 but they have a run differential of -19. To put that into perspective, the Twins are six games under .500 with a run differential of -17. The Chicago Cubs are 17 games over .500 (one better than the M’s) and they have a run differential of +98. We could go through a slew of other teams but the bottom line is that Seattle is allowing more runs than they’re scoring and that does not correlate to a winning record, let along a record that is 16 games over .500. The Mariners’ good fortune took a hit this past weekend when the Blue Jays went into Safeco and were in a position to sweep before a late Mariners’ rally with the game tied 3-3 prevented it. That terrible pitching staff will now be thrown into the fire at Globe Life Park.

Martin Perez (LHP) is a risk to be sure. He’s only pitched 46 innings this year and came off the 60-day DL on July 14. He brings a 6.50/5.54 ERA/xERA split into this game but the news isn’t all bad. Perez’s first-pitch strike rate is stronger than ever. His groundball rate, once elite, is heading back in that direction and is now at 51%. His swing and miss rate last game was 11% and his velocity is also back to an average of 93 MPH. Perhaps the DL stint did Perez some good. We’ll have to wait and see how things pan out for him the rest of the year but this wager has nothing to do with Perez. Again, it’s all about fading the Mariners and their extremely misleading record.

Leading the way in Seattle’s misleading record is Wade Leblanc (LHP). LeBlanc has been one of the bright spots in the AL since joining the Seattle rotation in May, and his sparkling 3.19 ERA on July 4 would sit just outside the league top 10 with enough innings to qualify. But did this journeyman lefty really find something new this year? A skills analysis says no fu**ing way. LeBlanc's xERA is 5.39, which is right in line with his recent-year numbers. While his control has been outstanding, the soft-tossing LeBlanc's K-rate and swinging strikes both leave something to be desired and are also right at career norms. Leblanc throws 86 MPH on his best day. His swinging strike rate over his last 10 starts is 5%. The main difference for LeBlanc, besides throwing a few more first-pitch strikes is a lucky 79% strand rate, which is well above what you'd expect from a relatively low-strikeout pitcher. An 8%/33% dominant start/disaster start split agrees. Like the Mariners, expect a regression that sends LeBlanc's ERA skyrocketing up in the second half. Incidentally, Texas hits lefties well (.751 OPS) and has posted a robust overall .861 OPS over the last two weeks.

PLEASE NOTE: One of the unique things about our website is that we provide write-ups every single day on every game we post. We’re not sure if everyone understands how time consuming that is and how difficult it is as well but if you do not, please try it one day and you’ll see.

That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.

This is a feature that you will see on our home page with the other wagers and we’ll also tweet it out when our add-ons have been posted.

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