Today's Free Picks for
BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +199 BET365 +1½ +210 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES -1½ +200
Posted at 9:15 AM EST.
8:40 PM EST. Kyle Freeland (LHP) draws a Coors Field start against the Pirates, a team that owns a .956 OPS against him. Pittsburgh owns an .848 OPS over its last 18 games, and Freeland-of-recent-vintage has been a higher-walk-more-fly-balls proposition. We faded Freeland in his last start in St. Louis, where his pitching line was worse than the results. He gave up nine hits in five innings and also walked three, thus creating a WHIP of 2.25 but his high wire act only led to three earned runs. Freeland’s skills, including his 7% swing and miss rate over his last five starts, are all trending the wrong way. This is what appears to be a running out of gas starter that is feeling the effects of pitching a lot of innings at Coors Field. It does take a toll.
Joe Musgrove (RHP) carried substantial intrigue heading into 2018, following a strong second half of 2017 (2.79 ERA in 42 IP). Musgrove missed the first two months of the season with a right shoulder strain, but he has since compiled a 3.63 ERA in 67 innings and we like what we’re seeing. Musgrove has a lengthy history of elite control. He has doled out free passes at a slightly higher rate in 2018, but his control sub-indicators point to less walks moving forward. An above average swing and miss rate hints that more strikeouts may be on the way (8.6 expected K’s/9). He has done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground too. We make notes on all starters after the season in preparation for the following year. Our check-in with Musgrove after the season highlighted his substantial profit potential. While the early season injury wiped out most of his first half, those same enticing skills are still present and we’re going to trust there is significant value in getting behind him when warranted. We’ll put that to the test here.
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That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.
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Our Pick
Pittsburgh -1½ +210 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.20)