San Francisco @ ARIZONA
San Francisco +129 over ARIZONA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +129 BET365 +120 SportsInteraction +120 5DIMES +123

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

8:10 PM EST. The Diamondbacks' stock is soaring after winning five of their last seven games and pulling into a first-place tie in the NL West with the mighty Dodgers. Clay Buchholz (RHP) will toe the slab tonight and on the surface, it might look like he's pitching near his best (4-1, 2.65 ERA), but a deeper dive shows this guy is closer to the scrap heap than he is the top of a rotation. First, the 33-year-old's xERA is almost two full runs higher than his actual ERA and he has an unsustainable strand rate of 81.3%. His 40% ground-ball rate also leaves something to be desired, as does the fact he's also giving up more hard-hit balls than any other time in his career. Something has got to give here and it's likely to be his ERA. Nine starts is a small sample size for Buchholz considering he’s eclipsed his current command and strikeout rate over full seasons only once and twice, respectively, so expectations going forward have to be tempered. Buchholz is not back, as his skills do not support the results.

On the other side of the coin, we have Andrew Suarez (LHP), who hasn't been able to catch a break the last month or so. While the 25-year-old took the win in his last outing, before that, he was winless in four straight despite giving up three runs or fewer in three of those starts. The rookie has a xERA slightly lower than his actual ERA, which is a good sign and he's able to keep it together with a tidy 51.2% ground ball rate. His sinker is his best pitch at inducing those grounders at a 60% clip. Suarez has dominated lefties as well with a .206 wOBA. Suarez was able to show flashes of brilliance before the All-Star break and is worth getting behind here taking back a tag, while he and the Giants' value is down.

PLEASE NOTE: One of the unique things about our website is that we provide write-ups every single day on every game we post. We’re not sure if everyone understands how time consuming that is and how difficult it is as well but if you do not, please try it one day and you’ll see.

That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.

This is a feature that you will see on our home page with the other wagers and we’ll also tweet it out when our add-ons have been posted.

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Our Pick

San Francisco +129 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.58)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110