Toronto @ OAKLAND
Toronto +125 over OAKLAND

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +123 BET365 +125 SportsInteraction +125 5DIMES +125

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

3:35 PM EST. Sean Manaea (LHP) is obviously a decent pitcher with good results this year but he’s the second best starter in this matchup and that’s our focus here. Oakland’s stock remains high while Toronto’s remains low and that, too increases the value on the Blue Jays. This wager is not about fading Manaea. It’s about getting behind Toronto’s ace and an ace he is.

Marcus Stroman (RHP) is well-regarded in the ERA column for this turn at Oakland Coliseum. Stroman’s recent form (3.86 ERA last five games) is indicator-supported. He’s been difficult to barrel up, and the Coliseum tamps down the potential danger of the Oakland offense, which ranks 28th in home OPS and first in the same stat on the road. The 27-year-old right-hander owns a 2.35 ERA over his last five road starts but it’s more than that. Stroman’s 5.20 surface ERA is hugely misleading.

After six weeks on the DL for shoulder fatigue, Stroman returned to the rotation in late June. His early 2018 results were poor (7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP in 37 innings over seven starts), and while some of that was certainly his own doing (way too many walks) and likely attributable to his tired shoulder, he was also unlucky (36% hit rate) and unsupported by his bullpen mates (54% strand rate). Truth be told, when healthy, Stroman is one of the best and most reliable pitchers in the game. Take out the first three months of this season and count everything after that and before that and his 6.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is 13th in the league, right behind guys like Stephen Strasburg, Jacob deGrom, Madison Bumgarner, and Zack Greinke. His 60.1% ground-ball rate topped all pitchers last season and his 62% rate tops all pitchers this year. Stroman’s ground-ball rate in 2016, 2017 and 2018 is the highest over a three-year period (min. 300 innings pitched) this decade. Inducing a lot of groundballs is a good thing, largely because ground balls can’t become homers. Stroman’s 0.87 HR/9 over his career is indicative of that; it places second among qualified starters only to Clayton Kershaw. Stroman is back and throwing well and we therefore must go after prices like this on him.

PLEASE NOTE: One of the unique things about our website is that we provide write-ups every single day on every game we post. We’re not sure if everyone understands how time consuming that is and how difficult it is as well but if you do not, please try it one day and you’ll see.

That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.

This is a feature that you will see on our home page with the other wagers and we’ll also tweet it out when our add-ons have been posted.

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Our Pick

Toronto +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas