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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

8:40 PM EST. We’ve been studying pitchers and their skills for at least a couple of decades and we’re here to tell you that it’s extremely difficult to know whether Sean Manaea (LHP) is lucky or good (or a bit of both). Manaea has a solid 3.38 ERA after 21 starts but what he doesn’t have is big strikeout numbers or a strong groundball lean. In fact, Sean Manaea has struck out just 13 batters in his past 30 innings and has just 88 K’s in 124 frames overall. What sticks out in his profile in terms of luck is his .221 BABIP, which is the lowest among the 30 starters going today and also one of the lowest marks among all qualified starters this season. Regression in his BABIP is guaranteed, as no starter in the history of this game has been able to keep their BABIP that low for an extended period of time. Last year for instance, Manaea’s BABIP was .318 with the league average being .300 and staying around that number ever since they started keeping track of these type of metrics. There is no question that Manaea has been the beneficiary of some very good BABIP fortune but he’s also contributed to his success with his skills.

You see, Manaea can locate any of his three pitches wherever he wants to and that’s a skill that few pitchers have. He has outstanding control, as evidenced by his 24 walks in 130 innings. In previous years, he would keep his fastball away from right-handed batters. This year, he’s hitting spots on both sides of the plate. Last year, when he fell behind in the count against a righty, Manaea would turn to his changeup just 28% of the time. This year, it’s almost an even 50-50 split when the batter is ahead. He’s also mixing in his slider earlier in the count to try and steal a strike. Said Manaea, “You can have that confidence in yourself that you can throw a pitch wherever you want and it relaxes you. Now that I have that confidence, I’m thinking that I’m going to throw pitches, I am going to throw something nasty. Not worrying, not hoping.”

Manaea gets plenty of infield pops and perhaps that’s one of the reasons his BABIP is so low. Regardless, he’s pitching for one of the hottest teams in the league that are abusing opposing pitchers and we’re not talking about just Texas. The “a recently abused the two best pitching staffs in baseball when they crushed the Astronauts in three of four games and scored after defeating the Indians in two of three. The starting pitchers that the A’s abused over that stretch just before the break were Corey Kluber, Shane Bieber, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander. The A’s hot sticks now head to Coors Field after scoring 41 runs in Texas over the past four days.

By contrast, it’s not difficult to know whether Kyle Freeland’s success is fluke or fact. Unlike Manaea, Freeland’s control is shaky so right off the bat, give a big edge to Manaea. Freeland has a BB/K split of 41/95 in 124 innings. Over his last five starts covering 29 innings, Freeland has walked 10 and struck out 18. In his last start, his swing and miss rate was 1% and it’s now down overall to 8½%. A further reduction in his sinker usage (1H-2017/2H-2017/2018: 35%/28%/14%) has shaved a few points off his groundball rate. Freeland’s first-pitch strike rate and ball % overall are also trending the wrong way. The worst thing a pitcher at this level can do is fall behind a hot hitting lineup and one can magnify that at this venue. Freeland was moved to the pen in August and September last year because he was tiring out. In fact, we would’ve led the team in innings pitched had he not been moved to the pen. We’re now seeing a similar pattern of a pitcher running out of gas. The bigger issue is a low first-pitch strike rate and his poor control. This is one game and anything can happen but in an evenly priced game, everything points to the A’s bring the prudent choice, as Freeland’s most likely path to success is though good fortune only, which is not exactly wagering catnip.

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