Philadelphia @ CINCINNATI
Philadelphia +117 over CINCINNATI

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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Tyler Mahle (RHP) has started 20 games so far in his first full season and had some early season success but MLB hitters are catching up to him. Mahle brings a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through 106 innings with 101 strikeouts and 46 walks issued. The high number of free passes really sticks out, especially given his track record in the minors. While he has dominated right-handed batters (2018: 622 OPS in 210 PA), he has struggled mightily against left-handers (.953 OPS in 228 PA). Only 11 qualified starting pitchers in MLB this year have allowed a higher % of hard contact (41%) and only five have allowed a higher line-drive %. That includes a whopping 46% hard-hit rate against left-handed batters. The Phillies can stack the lineup with as many as six LH bats and it’s also worth noting that Mahle has struggled over the past month with a 7.36 ERA in three July starts and he has been at his worst at home. Furthermore, the Phillies have been playing well since the break, averaging six runs per game.

Needing a spot starter after a doubleheader a few days ago, the Phillies are calling up Ranger Suarez (LHP) to make his major league debut. The 22-year-old lefty signed with the team out of Venezuela when he was 16 and he's been moving up the levels ever since, including 15.2 innings in his first taste of Triple-A. Standing just 6'1" and weighing 180 pounds, Suarez doesn't overwhelm batters. His fastball sits in the low-90s, but that works for lefties and it's his plus pitch. The mid-80s slider and his change-up are average. The whole package plays up due to his great command. Suarez also keeps the ball down, leading to low home run numbers. So while the strikeouts will likely be modest, he will pitch to soft contact and refuse to walk many batters. It can add up to a successful back-end rotation arm. At 22, his frame is still projectable and his velocity has been ticking up. With just three games pitched at the Triple-A level, he could use more seasoning there but the success he's been having at the upper levels of the minors indicate that he will be ready to help the Phillies sooner than later. For now he gives them a spot start. By this time next season? He might very well be in their rotation. You’ll notice below the few jacks he’s surrendered over a large sample size, which makes him worthy of getting behind in this park.

Suarez's career minor league line:

417.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, 2.0 BB’s/9, 7.8 K’s/9, 15 HR, .220 oppBA, 1.03 WHIP.

2018 STATS: Lehigh Valley (AAA) 3 g, 3 gs, 1-0, 0.57 ERA, 15.2 IP, 2.3 BB’s/9, 6.9 K’s/9, 0 HR, .267 oppBA, 1.27 WHIP

2018 STATS: Reading (AA) 12 g, 12 gs, 4-3, 2.76 ERA, 75.0 IP, 2.4 BB’s/9, 6.5 K’s/9, 2 HR, .235 oppBA, 1.12 WHIP

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Our Pick

Philadelphia +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)

San Diego -1½ +163 over Milwaukee
N.Y. Yankees -1½ +168 over Toronto
L.A. Angels +108 over Tampa Bay