Minnesota @ TORONTO
Minnesota +105 over TORONTO

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +105 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +101

Posted at 9:45 AM EST.

4:05 PM EST. Note the odd start time for a mid-week afternoon game in Toronto but the Twinkies couldn’t care less. Minnesota came into this road series losers of nine straight on the road but they have now won back-to-back road games and there is no reason they can’t complete the sweep here against Sam Gaviglio (RHP).

It’s not that Gaviglio is terrible. In fact, he’s been very serviceable with a 4.59/4.03 ERA/xERA split after 12 starts and 14 overall appearances. However, as the chalk he’s not serviceable at all. Gaviglio’s fastball averages 87 MPH. He has 61 K’s in 65 frames but his 9% swing and miss rate does not support the the K-rate. His lack of swing-and-miss stuff underscores his mundane arsenal that batters abuse and now that the film is out on him, his second go-around isn’t likely to go as well as the first and the first didn’t even go THAT well.

Bettors are likely to be a little reluctant to get behind Earvin Santana (RHP) here because it’s his season debut after spending the first 3+ months on the rack. Santana has been activated from the 60-day disabled list after recovering from a procedure known as capsular release and debridement conducted on the MCP joint in his right middle finger. However, he did make four starts at AAA Rochester and threw 29 frames and allowed just 19 hits, struck out 22 and walked just five. Santana is not coming in cold and it’s not like he’s never come off the DL before either. A fresh Santana that is likely going to be jacked up to get going is worth a bet here. You see, Santana is one of those workhorses who never really gets his due. Perhaps his career xERA and early career volatility have kept interest at bay and age will likely do the same going forward but a top-25 oppBA-against since 2013 shows his skill. We’ll buy for the high floor. Santana off the DL with four good starts at Rochester gets our money here.

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Our Pick

Minnesota +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110