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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Had it not been for a bizarre ninth inning rally by the Rays yesterday, Miami would’ve swept the Rays in Tampa. This enthusiastic group has been playing extremely competitive ball for the past two months while winning a decent percentage of their games too.

Jose Urena (RHP) hasn't made it out of the sixth inning in three-straight starts at home but does anybody these days? Urena might be catching the Braves at a decent time too (no Albies, 23rd in wRC+ this month) but this wager is more about fading the Braves and their starter after an important weekend series in Washington.

Sean Newcomb (LHP) was scheduled to start Saturday in Washington in that huge series and the game ended up being rained out. On Sunday, Braves Manager, Brian Snitker, skipped over Newcomb completely and to us, that’s a red flag that the manager didn’t trust him. No question that Newcomb felt slated in some way, as that is not a boost of confidence by the manager. Now Newcomb slips into an “easier” game against the Marlins. Thing is, Newcomb’s manage might have been right about not trusting him.

You see, Newcomb was out too far over his skis in posting a May-June surface ERA near 2.00. A big uptick in barrels allowed and home runs coughed up has accompanied a hit/strand regression, and the lefty has recorded 8.12 xERA over his last three games started. What this market sees however, is a 3.51 ERA over 105 innings in the first half. Newcomb has walked 52 batters this year and has been getting torched in terms of hard hit balls over the past month. Now his manager doesn’t trust him and he’s road chalk against a feisty host.

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