Minnesota @ TORONTO
Minnesota +118 over TORONTO

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +118 BET365 +115 SportsInteraction +115 5DIMES +116

Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Adalberto Mejia (LHP) has been promoted from Triple-A Rochester, where he was 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA with 50 K’s and 16 BB in 49.1 frames. Mejia made 21 starts (98 innings) for the Twins in 2017 and just three were quality starts. His 85 strikeouts were encouraging, but he walked 44. He finished 2017 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP, but his xERA was 5.10. Mejia is really the definition of "5th starter" with a deep, mediocre repertoire and fringe skills. He’s added velocity to all four pitches and his xERA hints at his downside but there could be a little more here than meets the eye. A starting lefty with four pitches is not a bad place to start when taking back a tag against an opposing starter that probably shouldn’t be one.

Luis Santos (RHP) spent a day in the big leagues earlier this year as the Blue Jays' 26th man during a DH. He appeared in the second game of the May 4 DH, giving up six runs in 1.2 innings. He subsequently was called up again in early July to provide bullpen depth and over that time, he pitched another six innings of relief over four appearances. Overall in 2018 at this level, Santos has thrown eight innings and has a BB/K split of 4/9. He also appeared in 10 games last year for Toronto. With a four-pitch mix, the 27-year-old has spent most of his minor league career (since 2011) working as a starting pitcher. As a reliever last year, his stuff ticked up. Santos’ fastball sits 91-94 mph. It’s a true two-seam pitch with arm-side movement and a little sink. He compliments his fastball with three fringe off-speed pitches. An 81-83 mph slider is his primary out pitch against righties. While the pitch breaks on two-planes, the movement isn’t enough to keep LHH’s off the pitch. For LHH, he primarily uses a mid-80s changeup with solid arm-side run and a little fade. Against RHH’s in the minors, he hasn’t been afraid to use his change. Against RHHs in the big leagues, they’ve teed off in limited samples. Santos has enough stuff to survive but the margins for error are small, given how fringy his secondary offerings are. As a starter, we can’t recommend him. His 2018 STATS at Buffalo (AAA) were as follows: 17 g, 2 gs, 2-2, 3.66 ERA, 39.1 IP, 2.7 BB’s/9, 8.2 K’s/9, 1 HR, .229 oppBA

You’ll notice that Santos only started two games and that’s a massive red flag that suggests he’s not good enough to be a starter.

The Twins did something this past weekend that isn’t easy to do, which is being swept in Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays swept the Orioles over the weekend but Toronto needed a walkoff hit on Friday to win by a run and they also needed four runs in the eighth inning yesterday to win by a run so it’s not like they beat up on the Orioles like every other team has been doing this year. In fact, they could have easily lost two of three to Baltimore as a big favorite in all three games. Now the Jays will send out Luis Santos to start the opener of this series and he’s a massive risk as the chalk. With Minnesota’s stock hitting bottom, we’ll bite.

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Our Pick

Minnesota +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)

No Run in First Inning -105