Atlanta @ WASHINGTON
Atlanta +191 over WASHINGTON

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +191 BET365 +180 SportsInteraction +180 5DIMES +185

Posted at 9:45 AM EST.

1:35 PM EST. Yesterday’s game was rained out so we figured the same starters would be going today but that’s not the case, at least for now but we’re thrilled to get the Braves again at an even better price. You see, the Nationals have been on our fade list for the better part of the past month and nothing has occurred to change our position on them. The Nats still lack drive and more often than not, they’re just going through the motions. Despite that lack of desire and just about everything else, they’re priced almost daily like a contender, which continue to provide us with opportunities like this one.

Max Scherzer (RHP) needs no introductions, as we all know exactly who he is and what he brings. He has been as successful as any starter this year (2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 rate), but what you may not know is that he last logged a pure quality start on June 5. To put that drought in perspective, Sale has tallied a pure quality starts on five occasions since Scherzer last accomplished the feat. Scherzer is obviously still a stud and can pitch a gem at any time but he is not the top option here due to recent performances and a fairly taxing matchup against a quality Braves lineup. Atlanta wants to win and they want to win badly while the Nationals are going to be blown up at the end of this year.

That Mike Foltynewicz (RHP) is taking back a tag like this is nuts. It might be another decade before you get a price like this again on Folty. Mike Foltynewicz posted a 1.13 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over four starts in June and his overall ERA/xERA is now 2.66/3.26 with 120 K’s in 102 innings. While he’s been helped by an unsustainable 81% strand rate, we can't dismiss the skills he put up: 10.9 K’s/9, 58% groundballs and of course the aforementioned xERA. His 12.2% swing and miss rate and 67% first-pitch strike rate since the beginning of June are both top three marks. Dude is priced like he’s Andrew Cashner here for f**ks sake and if we lose this game, we’ll still be proud to rip up this ticket.

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Our Pick

Atlanta +191 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.82)

San Diego -1½ +163 over Milwaukee
N.Y. Yankees -1½ +168 over Toronto
L.A. Angels +108 over Tampa Bay