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Posted at 9:45 AM EST.

4:10 PM EST. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP) is 4-7 with a 3.91/4.76 ERA/xERA split. While Lopez owns a below-average swing and miss rate of 9%, his newly-added slider (13% swing and miss) is creating whiffs. Missing bats with a cutter (12%) and a change-up (11%) provide a solid floor for keeping hitters off balance.  He should earn a few more strikeouts, Even though Lopez's addition of a slider has been successful (.509 oOPS) in 2018, his skills don't buy his ERA, which has been buoyed by a favorable hit%/strand% swing.

Marco Gonzales (LHP) is 10-5 with a 3.41 ERA after 19 starts covering 113 innings. However, he only throws 90 MPH and has an average swing and miss rate of 10%. Gonzales went 1-1- with a 6.08 ERA in 40 innings last year for St. Louis and Seattle combined. This former first-round pick gained some velocity after return from 2016 TJS, but fringe strikeout rate and xERA illustrated the bumpy ride ahead. Gonzales has been very good this year, especially his control, where he’s walked just 22 batters all year. He could perform well here and that wouldn’t surprise anyone. In fact, he’s expected to do well here.

We’re just giving you the skinny on Lopez and Gonzales but in no way is this a wager based on the starters. This wager is all about fading the imposter Mariners that we’re suggesting should bring back some nice profits the rest of the way.

Only the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros have a better record than the Mariners. There is not a single team in the NL with a higher winning percentage than Seattle and in this world we live in, winning is everything. The market views the Mariners as one of the best teams in baseball because of their great record. That works in our favor because that misleading record will provide us with great prices for a while until the Mariners inevitably come crashing down to Earth.

You see, Boston’s run differential is +163. New York’s is +130. Houston’s run differential is +197. Those are the top three teams in the league. Seattle has teh fourth best record in the league and its run differential is -5. That’s right, the Mariners have scored less runs than they’ve allowed, which does not correlate to a winning record. For instance, the Pirates run differential is -10, which is the closest to the Mariners -5 and the Pirates are one game over .500 at 50-49. The Cardinals run differential is +19 and the Cards are a mere two games over .500. The Angels run differential is +15 and they’re two games under .500. The Rays run differential is +18 and they’re a .500 ball club. One could go through the history books and never find a team with a run differential of -5 or thereabouts and be 20 games over .500 after 100 games. The conclusion is that the Mariners have been EXTREMELY lucky and with a starting staff that is among the worst in MLB, regression to that misleading record is almost guaranteed. The Seattle Mariners are no better than the Pirates, Rays or Blue Jays but they’re priced like they’re as good as the Yanks, Red Sox and Astros.

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