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Posted at 10:35 AM EST.

2:20 PM EST. Jon Lester (LHP) posted a fortunate 26% hit rate and just as fortunate 84% strand rate in the first half, as his 4.59 xERA looms two full runs above his 2.58 ERA. the gap between Lester’s ERA and xERA is the biggest among qualified pitchers. His hard-contact rate has increased to 33% in 2018, and more fly balls add even more risk. Lady Luck has been at Lester’s side all year and he’s also been lucky against the Cardinals after allowing four earned runs against them in 17 innings this year but his xERA in those 17 frames was 5.88. Lester is perceived in this market as a strong option when in fact, he’s the second best option in this matchup and it’s not even close.

Jack Flaherty (RHP) backs his strikeout rating with a 13% swing and miss rate and 10.4 K’s/9. On June 17, he struck out seven Chicago hitters in five scoreless innings. The right-hander's 3.38 xERA is outstanding but all this market sees is an unlucky 4.44 ERA in his last five games. Jack Flaherty is racking up a ton of strikeouts with 32 in his last 24 innings and 87 overall in 75 frames. His 12.2 K’s per nine in June came with the support of a 14.4% swing and miss rate. He does a great job of handcuffing RH bats as well and with skills that have improved in each month so far in 2018, Flaherty is another young pitcher that is flashing ace potential.

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