Miami @ TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY -1½ +129 over Miami

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Posted at 10:35 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. After missing all of the 2017 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the last thing Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) wanted in 2018 was more time on the disabled list. Unfortunately loose bodies were discovered in his pitching arm towards the end of spring training and surgery to remove them put him on the shelf for the first two months of the season. Now, with nine regular season starts under his belt, his skills are better than ever. What jumps out first is the significant control improvements that are fully supported by the high rate of strikes he is throwing. Eovaldi is still pumping upper 90s heat, and inducing grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him. His 8 K’s/9 is much higher than in anything he’s posted in previous seasons and the spike in strikeouts is fully supported by a rise in swinging strikes. Any help provided by the fortunate hit rate so far, has been undone by ghastly strand (60%) and home run rates (19% hr/f). The better control he has shown against left-handed batters could be the key to solving prior platoon issues, if it sticks. Eovaldi’s skills are significantly better than anything he has done previously in the majors, and the 3.52 xERA all point towards better days ahead. He’s worth a bet.

Dan Straily (RHP) has been on five teams in the last five years. He’s serviceable enough to send out there every five days for a rebuilding team but he’s not good enough to get behind. Straily is an extreme flyballer that has given up 31 HR in each of the last two years. He’s also walked 34 batters in 71 frames so his control is horrible. Straily’s xERA is over five and his groundball rate is a weak 32%. Lots of big flies will continue without big K’s and/or GB spikes and there's no sign of either of those happening. The Rays figure to get a hold of a hanger or two.

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Our Pick

TAMPA BAY -1½ +129 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.58)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas