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Chicago @ SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago -108 over SAN FRANCISCO

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -108 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -110  5DIMES -105

Posted at 10:00 AM EST.

3:45 PM EST. Michael Montgomery has once again split the season between starting and relieving while doing his best work in the former. That’s the exact same story as last year and the year before too. Montgomery has a top-flight groundball rate (55%), which helps mitigate HR, but his strikeout rate and average give his xERA credence. We’ll trust this former top prospect in this spot because he still has plenty of upside and because the Giants are beatable on their very best day. 

We targeted Johnny Cueto yesterday before he was scratched and will target him again today in a day game at AT&T Park, which turns into a hitter friendly venue when that heavy night-air is out of the equation.

Johnny Cueto missed over two months of action with a strained elbow and upon his return delivered a complete disaster. We can live with disasters, as they are unavoidable at this level but a look under the hood infers some serious trouble. In his first start back after missing two months, Cueto’s velocity was significantly down, clocking in at only 87.7 mph. For a starter that is used to seeing 93 register on the radar gun, one can only imagine how disturbing that must be to Cueto. It not only punishes his confidence in what he’s doing, it absolutely plants a seed of doubt in his mind. Cueto was roughed up by St. Louis in his first game back by allowing 10 hits and five runs in  five frames and he’ll now face a much tougher challenge in the Cubs, who have a .779 OPS against right-handed pitching, which is second best in MLB. Johnny Cueto and is new found 87 MPH fastball is pure fade material.

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Our Pick

Chicago -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

 

 

bet365

CINCINNATI -1 +175 over Pittsburgh
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Chicago +187 over SEATTLE