Today's Free Picks for
BEST LINES: Pinnacle +174 BET365 +175 SportsInteraction +175 5DIMES +175
Posted at 11:30 AM EST.
1:05 PM EST. Yes indeed, the Bronx Bombers are alive and well and might be the best team in baseball. Furthermore, they have their ace going today in Luis Severino (RHP). A poster boy for prospect growth not being linear, this fantasy afterthought last spring blossomed into an ace by refining his base skills. Results not only dominated throughout '17, but left him in the top 10 in first-pitch strikes, swinging strikes and groundball rate to bet on for '18. His xERA agrees and this year is even better with a BB/K split of 25/118 in 99 frames to go along with an ERA/xERA split of 2.09/2.94. This is the straight good starting pitching for the straight goods but damn, gamblers will pay a hefty price to back the Severino/NYY combo in the Bronx.
Meanwhile, there are not many places on the planet where we are going to get offered a tag like this on the Mariners/James Paxton (LHP) combo. In fact, Paxton has an even better BB/K split (26/115 in 92 IP) than Severino. How good is Paxton when he’s on? Paxton’s May began with 16 strikeouts against Oakland. That game was followed by a no-hitter in Toronto, and then, the next three times out, Paxton issued only one total walk while whiffing 23. Over six starts in May, Paxton went 43 innings and allowed eight runs, with opponents’ batting .143 and slugging .240.
It’s not that Paxton throws the highest-spin fastball in the world. His fastball doesn’t generate an extraordinary amount of rise. Still, the proof is in the pudding — Fastballs like the one shown below are simply overpowering and it’s not like the Yankees don’t strike out.
It is a rare day when we get a pitcher of Paxton’s caliber at a price like this and if we rip up another ticket during this current cold spell, so be it. We’re sticking with value and we’ll let the chips fall where they may. Of course the Mariners can win here.
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Our Pick
Seattle +175 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.50)