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Posted at 10:00 AM EST.

1:35 PM EST. The Padres do not have much market credibility because they’ve been weak for a long time but if you want to see how to build a team from the ground up, watch Padres GM, A.J. Preller’s work come to fruition over the next couple of years. When Preller took over in 2014, he began the revamp of the Padres' farm system. The dividends will start paying off this year or next, as this team is on the verge of contending. Preller also made some shrewd moves and one of those included today’s starter Matt Strahm (LHP).

In July of last year, San Diego traded a lot of immediate innings pitched (and projected saves) to Kansas City mostly for help in future years—including Strahm, who at the time was out for the year after undergoing knee surgery. However, at the start of last year, the Royals decided to keep the 25-year-old Strahm in the bullpen for the start of the 2017 campaign. Strahm could pitch high-leverage situations because he throws left-handed and because of his effectiveness against hitters from both sides. He’s tall and angular, and set a career-high in innings while posting a high strikeout rate in 2016. He made the jump from Double-A—where he was a starter—to the majors where he showed poise and domination in 22 innings and ended 2016 with a 1.23 ERA in a small sample size. Last year, before being injured, Strahm struck out 37 batters in 35 innings before a torn patellar tendon ended his season in July, then came that aforementioned trade to the Friars.

Strahm has a deceptive delivery that allows his 89-94 mph fastball to play up and he exhibits solid control with all of his pitches. An improving curveball and changeup allow him to miss bats and he consistently lives down in the strike zone. He’s appeared in 11 games this year with three of those coming as a starter. He’ll now make his fourth start of the year and he’s an undervalued commodity. In his three starts, Strahm posted a wicked 17% swing and miss rate and an elite 60% groundball rate. This is a high-ceiling lefty that not many know about pitching for a team that’s been a difficult out since May.

By contrast, Julio Teheran (LHP) has market credibility and so does the team he pitches for. As a result, you will pay a stupid price to get behind this weak starter. In fact, the underlying numbers suggest that Teheran is one of the worst starters in the game. For one, Teheran comes off the disabled list due to a thumb issue. Prior to his injury, he posted stats that weren't bad enough on the surface (4.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) to recognize how awful he truly was but we’ve done the research. Teheran brings a horrible 5.93 xERA to the table and his deep struggles against lefty bats suggests you don’t want this stiff anywhere near your bankroll today. The Padres will have five and/or probably six left-handed bats in there today. Julio Teheran is living off his extremely lucky .225 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). To give you an idea of how absurd that is, Jonathan Gray’s BABIP is .371 and Lance McCullers is .274. Teheran has walked 12 batters and struck out 13 over his past 22 frames and overall he has a weak BB/K split of 33/56 over 71 innings. Even his groundball/fly-ball split of 39%/45% is weak. There is not one thing in Julio Teheran’s profile that makes him an appealing choice against anyone so put this terrible starter at the top of your fade list and begin fading starting here. There are great returns waiting.

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