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Posted at 10:15 AM EST.

4:05 PM EST. Alex Cobb used to be good but that was when he was a member of the Rays and before he had elbow surgery. Cobb comes in with a 7.23 ERA with just 37 K’s in 56 innings. He seriously has some of the worst numbers in the game with runners on base. It’s pretty hard to see how Cobb’s parts can be put back together to form a total package as formidable as he had been. For one thing, Cobb has been something close to a two-pitch pitcher for most of the season. Prior, he always used an unusual sinker-curveball mix, but both pitches used to complement and set up his true out-maker, the splitter. Since shredding his UCL, he’s roughly halved his use of that devastating offering, which has made him a fraction  of his optimal self. Additionally, he now pitches for a team that can’t win and in turn, every pitcher on this club tries to be too fine because there are no comebacks in those Orioles bats like there used to be.

Fading the Orioles when they’re favored is, to use a poker term, an insta-call, meaning we can’t get our chips in fast enough. Yeah, the Orioles are going to win more games this year but if you’re going to get behind them, you had better do so when taking back a tag because their chances of losing remain much better than winning. A junk pitcher like Wei-Yin Chen (LHP), that sequences well, has a great chance to carve up this lineup.

Chen leans heavily on the fastball and slider when a strikeout is in order, choosing one of those pitches 93 percent of the time with two strikes against a left-hander. Those two weapons generate 91% of his strikeouts and he has struck out 25 batters over his last 27 frames. Long-term stability of his stuff, stats and mechanics have formed the foundation of his value. He has survived the gauntlet of the injury nexus, has offered consistent performance year in and year out, and there are few signs of wear to raise the flags of rapid decline after missing most of last year with a partially torn UCL. Furthermore, Chen knows this venue well, as he was an Oriole for four years before signing with the Marlins. He also knows a few of these Orioles hitters. In 45 combined AB’s, current O’s have nine hits (.200) against Chen. Chen will now face and Orioles nine that swing at everything and hit nothing. The definition of dreadful is causing or involving great suffering, fear, or unhappiness; extremely bad or serious. The Baltimore Orioles are dreadful this season.

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