BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +173 BET365 -1½ +205 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES -1½ +185

Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

8:05 PM EST. Chad Bettis (RHP) has posted a 2.03 away ERA thanks to an 89% strand rate and 22% hit rate on the road. Bettis has a lousy 53 K’s in 74 innings. His underlying skills paint a gloomy picture. His negative ratio ratings, a 4.91 xERA, and a lower chance for a win say there are better value options on today's slate and one of those would be the Rangers unknown starter. Finally, we’ve been suggesting all season that Colorado’s shiny road record is all smoke and mirrors and that’s because it is. They have been on the extreme side of good fortune on the road and a correction to the bad is coming. The Rockies weak road offense (ranked 26th) says so.

Playing the RUN LINE at this park makes as much sense as playing it at Coors, as not many games are decided by one run at this extreme hitter’s venue. However, good pitchers have a better chance at this park than they do at Coors and Yohander Mendez (LHP) might be one such pitcher. What we know for sure is that Mendez has zero market credibility but we promise you that his upside is much higher than Bettis’.  The 6'5", 200-pound lefty is probably glad to get out of the Pacific Coast League where in the early going batters were hitting .302 off of him. That is atypical for Mendez who, in his career, has traditionally been hard on batters with quality pitches highlighted by a plus change-up. His decent fastball sits 94 mph with life but because his changeup is low-80s, there is nice separation between the two pitches and it lets his heater play up. His main third pitch is an improving slider. Mendez sequences his pitches well and has had good success, as he has worked his way up the minors. He appeared briefly for the Rangers in 2016 and 2017. This kid can pitch. The scouting report entices: size, deep arsenal (four pitches), elite changeup, a prospect rarity and velocity. His 8.4 K’s/9 and solid control as a minor leaguer in a difficult league lay the foundation for what could be some sneaky great value. Pencil us in.

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