Tampa Bay @ N.Y. YANKEES
Tampa Bay +134 over N.Y. Y (5 inn)

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +134 BET365 +125 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +132

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. We’re not in favor of five-inning plays because of buy-out options and other reasons but nothing is in stone and this one calls for a five-inning wager. The Yanks pen is great while Tampa’s is not and with starters rarely going past six innings these days, we get a big edge on mound when comparing these two starters. 

Domingo German (RHP) was electric in his first start, but has struggled since that outing, with a 7.33 ERA over five starts. He has a 5.63 ERA in Yankee Stadium. German has appeared in 11 games with six of those being of the starting variety. German's ERA has been inflated by a 61% strand rate, but his xERA is still only 4.51, thanks to shaky control and command. German’s results over his last four starts have grown much, much worse: 8.14 ERA, 5.04 xERA, 4.3 BB’s/9, 7.3 K’s/9 with a 38%/39% groundball/fly-ball split. German’s win expectation ois high because he pitchers for the Yankees but this is without question a massive overlay, as Blake Snell is anong the elite pitchers in the game.

Blake Snell (LHP) has had only three poor outings in his 14 starts. One of those came in Yankee Stadium on April 4 when he allowed five earned runs in 3.2 frames but it was a frigid day in New York. Now, Snell comes in with his confidence sky high and a chance to showcase who he really is. Snell is well on his way to a breakout season (2.30 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). One of the keys has been his ability to deliver excellent command when runners are on base: 9.2 K’s/9, 1.1 BB’s/9. Snell has 89 K’s in 82 innings and if we lose this bet, so be it. Starters of Snell’s caliber, no matter whom or where they are pitching, taking back a price like this is playing into the house inefficiencies. Books have the Rays taking back -155 for the full game but just +134 in the first five, which is another indication of how live Blake Snell is. 

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Our Pick

Tampa Bay (5 inn) +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110