Washington @ N.Y. YANKEES
Washington +155 over N.Y. YANKEES

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +150 BET365 +155 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +151

Posted at 1:15 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. The Nationals have never shined when the lights have been brightest but there is another team from Washington that had that same reputation before snapping it recently so perhaps this Washington team will be inspired. Regardless, this line is out of whack and therefore the underdog must be played.

Tanner Roark (RHP) is going for the Nationals, which is one of the reasons the visitor is priced so high, as he’s perceived as their most beatable starter but that’s not bad when guys like Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez are one-two and three. Roark comes in with a 3.56/3.98 ERA/xERA split, which is outstanding for a #4 starter in this league. There are 29 other teams that would take a #4 starter like that every fifth day without hesitation and be thankful for it. Roark occasionally struggles versus lefties. His control is below average but his K-rate is slightly above. Hit % swings both in-season and year-to-year make him a moving target, meaning he’s hit and miss but at this price for this team against this pitcher, it’s worth the risk. This wager is not about getting behind Tanner Roark. It’s about playing a great team taking back an inflated price. 

C.C. Sabathia (LHP) has one loss in 11 starts to go along with a 3.59 ERA but it’s all fool’s gold. Our rating method has given him negative marks in every skills category. Sabathia has struck out a mere 44 batters in 58 frames. Over his last four starts covering 21 innings, he’s walked 10 and struck out 16. His 42%/39% groundball/fly-ball split is playing with fire and his 89 MPH fastball is about as below average as they come because he cannot locate it like he used to. C.C. Sabathia has a 4.45 xERA but since the beginning of May, that xERA is 5.38. That puts him in the same range as guys like James Shields and Ian Kennedy. Dude is surviving on an 80% strand rate and a fortunate .247 BABIP. Sabathia has put a lot of mileage on his arm over the years and age is clearly taking a toll on his skills. He's still a usable arm but he carries a lot of risk, including the strong likelihood that a higher ERA and regression in his run support will lead to more losses the rest of the way.

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Our Pick

Washington +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110