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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

1:05 PM EST. We understand how difficult it is to pull the trigger on the Orioles here or on any day because they swing at everything and hit nothing. The O’s are also 9-27 on the road, which translates to winning one out of every three road games. Simple math would suggest that taking back 2-1 or a bit more would be the only way to profit on the Orioles on the road but oddsmakers have this information too and hung up a tiny number (Jays opened at -120) with Baltimore’s worst starter (on paper) going. Why? Alex Cobb (RHP) is 2-7 with an ERA of 6.19. On the road, Cobb’s ERA is higher at 6.43. The O’s are a complete dumpster fire yet this is the lowest price on Cobb all year. Even against Jason Vargas and the free-falling Mets in his last start, Cobb was taking back +120. As a -120 favorite at home against the South Side three starts ago, Cobb lost 11-1 but Cobb may be the best dart throw in this game. Believe it or not, Cobb is coming on. Last year, he logged his career-high in innings in first full season post-May 2015 TJS. This year his velocity has returned to 94 MPH but his ability to miss bats hasn't but that looks to be changing too. In his last start, Cobb’s swing and miss rate was 13%. Also interesting are his very good skills with the bases empty: 7.8 K’s/9 1.5 BB’s/9, 53% groundballs. All of his problems have come with runners on base, when his skills foundation entirely collapses and that’s the next tweak he’s probably working on right now. Finally, current Jays have hit a measly .209 in 110 combined AB’s against Cobb with a horrible OPS of .580. None of the Jays in today’s lineup have ever hit a jack off him either with Troy Tulowitzki (remember him) being the only current Blue Jay to take Cobb deep. 

Then there’s the two-pitch Marco Estrada (RHP) coming off a six-inning shutout against the Yankees, which once again proves how luck and variance plays a part in outcomes. Estrada is more likely to get blown up than any other outcome because he’s among the worst starters in baseball.  Marco Estrada throws a 88 mph fastball. He throws an above-average change with a 15.5% swing and miss rate on it and that’s basically it for his pitches. He throws a horrible curve (no swinging strikes this season, 3% last season) and cutter each less than 10% of the time. He’s a two-pitch pitcher with a college fastball. Most pitchers with just two pitches at least throw hard. Not Estrada and when taking about throwing darts, wagering on Estrada when he’s favored is about the worst and riskiest bet one could make. Incidentally, current O’s have slugged 13 jacks off Estrada in 222 combined AB’s with a OPS of .787, which is more than 200 percentage points higher than current Jays’ OPS v Cobb. Plug your nose and plug in the pathetic Orioles.

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