San Francisco @ WASHINGTON
San Francisco +171 over WASHINGTON

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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

12:05 PM EST. We highlighted Dereck Rodriguez before his first start against the Phillies and he did not disappoint after allowing just one earned run on five hits scattered over six quality innings. He flamed six Philly batters and now has 10 total strikeouts in his 9.1 innings pitched. Rodriguez brings an excellent pedigree in name and not necessarily draft position, as he is the son of former star Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez. Like his old man, Dereck regularly goes with a different first name than his given, as he actually shares the same moniker as his famous father. The younger Rodriguez was great in Triple-A Sacramento where he started the season by knocking out a quarter of the batters he faced while walking just 5%, which is especially impressive in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Rodriguez has not looked out of place in the bigs and is a total steal because he is not yet on the market's radar.

Gio Gonzalez (LHP) has seen his value go through the roof this year. Last year's 2.96 ERA screamed regression, but he's been even better so far in 2018, with a 2.27 mark through 12 starts, but the skills certainly don't support the elite ERA. Gonzalez's velocity continues to trend downward. His fastball sits at 89 MPH now, yet he’s still missing bats at a respectable 10% clip. However that 10% does not support his 72 K’s in 71 innings and his first pitch strike rate of just 54% isn’t very good either. Gonzalez has hit the jackpot with a trifecta of good luck. His 0.5 hr/9 is sure to rise, as his current home run per fly ball rate is half the league average. His 83% strand rate is close to 10% higher than league average and his hit rate is lower than the league average too. Gonzalez has put up ace-like surface stats through the first two months of 2018, but nothing has really changed. He's the same guy he's been for the past few years, with just a little less velocity on his fastball but what he’s not is an ace, as his annual xERA trend paints a much more ominous picture: 3.41, 3.66, 3.87, 4.17 xERA. He's another pitcher currently being overvalued in the market by a wide margin and he’ll now face the hot bats of the Giants.

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Our Pick

San Francisco +171 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.42)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110