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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Caleb Smith (LHP) has some pretty sweet strikeout numbers this year with 74 K’s in 60 frames and it comes with supporting sub-indicators. However, Smith also has a 4.03 ERA overall ERA, a not so pretty 4.90 xERA over his last five starts and a very troublesome 29%/50% groundball/fly-ball split. When Caleb Smith isn’t striking out batters, he’s allowing some disturbing batted ball numbers. He’s feast or famine, meaning he’s a decent underdog that’s worth getting behind from time to time but he’s too big a risk when favored and pitching for a team that has trouble scoring.

The Padres remain an undervalued commodity because few pay attention to them but they have been on our radar since March when we pegged them to easily go over 71 wins for the season. Don’t look now but the Friars are coming on big time and are now just six games under .500 after starting the year 4-15. San Diego has seven wins in their past nine games and it is swinging some hot bats right now. They scored 9, 8, 8, 6 and 11 runs in five of those last seven victories and they all came at home in their pitcher’s park.

Eric Lauer (LHP) is a classic pitchability lefty that has made eight starts for the Padres this season after quickly moving through their minor-league system and he provides a nice floor as a backend starter. He has a repeatable, effortless delivery with an easy, clean, three-quarter arm slot. Lauer’s fastball sits in the low-90s and at its best flashes as a plus pitch. He backs that up with an above-average change that looks identical to the fastball, alongside a slider and curve. Lauer’s stuff plays up due to solid command and an ability to effectively change speeds as well as the pacing of his delivery. He has a BB/K split of 17/32 in 34 frames and while we would prefer to see less walks, he did not have control issues in the minors so it’s just a matter of trusting his stuff more at this level. Lauer’s 6.82 ERA has him undervalued for sure but a very unlucky 40% hit rate has been the cause of that inflated ERA and once that normalizes, his ERA will drop significantly. The Friars are a young, energized, talented team that few are aware of and we might just get them at prices all weekend long. If so, pencil us in but for now, we’ll start with this one.

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