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Posted at 10:15 AM EST.

12:35 EST. Note the early start time here, as the Rockies go for the sweep before returning home tomorrow for a three-game set against the D-Backs. This wager has nothing to do with the “home team not getting swept” angle. That angle is one we will never subscribe to and if you do, take it out of your repertoire immediately. This wager is once again all about value, as the Rockies stock continues to go up but a crash, especially on the road, is inevitable. The Rockies scored 15 runs in the first two games of this series but it came against two weak starters and they won’t have that same luxury here. Colorado’s offense ranks 28th in MLB on the road.

Though Tyler Mahle (RHP) had a better ERA during his four-start MLB debut in 2017, his 2018 skills have been far superior, with gains in control, strikeout rate, and command but thanks to a huge swing in hr/f luck, his ERA thus far isn't reflecting the skill improvement. His control growth has good first-pitch strike rate support. Mahle’s platoon splits indicate he still has some work to do against LHB, as they've hit nine of of the 13 home runs he's allowed but the Rockies rank 26th in the league in OPS on the road against righties. There's a lot to like in what the 23-year-old Mahle has done so far in 2018, and his skills indicate that he's probably a little undervalued right now. With 63 K’s in 61 innings and a very respectable 3.60 xERA over his last five starts (4.24 overall), Mahle and the Reds are worth a bet at this price.

Tyler Anderson (LHP) has been whacked in four of his last five starts and that’s a concern because he has a history of bad health and some of those nagging injuries may be lingering. Anderson is coming off not one, but two DL stints (knee) last season, culminating in late-June surgery that cost him a big chunk of 2017. He flashes decent skills when healthy but we have to question whether he’s healthy or not. Anderson has a weak BB/K split of 9/16 over his last 25 innings. He’s also an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball split of 33%/42% and that’s not the type of starter to get behind in a small park like Cincinnati’s Great American. Despite the poor record, the Reds are a dangerous offense with much better numbers against southpaws (11th ranked OPS vL) than they have against right-handers and when it’s all said and done, we’re trusting that the Reds have a much better chance of getting to Anderson than vice-versa.

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