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Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. The Dodgers are heating up, which makes them a potential freight train at bettable prices. They were a small favorite last night when they cruised to an easy win and they’re a small favorite here with a more favorable matchup.

Trevor Williams (RHP) has some of the most misleading surface stats in the game. Williams had some success late in 2017, putting up a 3.49 ERA across 15 second half starts. In 2018, it’s been much of the same, as he's currently sporting a 3.84 ERA through 12 starts but it’s not time to buy in, instead, it’s time to sell big time. Williams has little zip on his fastball and isn't generating many swings and misses. He has a pitiful 47 K’s in 68 frames. His 39%/22%/40% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball batted ball profile is also weak.

Williams has benefited from an extremely low (lucky) hit rate. Williams has been a good wagering option dating back to the second half of last season and into this season covering his last 25 starts. His skills present some ominous signs, though, as his velocity is down nearly 2 MPH, he's not missing bats, and he's giving up a lot more fly-balls this season. Weak skills catch up to everyone at some point and Williams is not immune. Chances are great that his ERA will be closer to five the rest of the way, just like his xERA of 4.74 says. Lastly, Williams’ fly-ball stuff and the Dodgers’ extra lefty bat or two bring out splits that favor the hitters in this one. Over his short career, Williams has performed much better on four-day rest and this one comes on five.

The first thing you’ll read regarding Caleb Ferguson (LHP) is that he was a 38th-round pick in 2014, but his low draft position is a bit misleading. The 6’3”, 215-pound Ohio-born Ferguson owed his tail-end-of-the-draft selection to undergoing Tommy John surgery in his senior year and the expectation he was going to honor his commitment to West Virginia. Despite this, he was nationally ranked as one of the top prospects in Ohio that year and one of the top 100 LHP available in the draft, and could have gone at least 20 rounds earlier on talent alone. The Dodgers did not waver and were able to lure him away with a cool 100 grand offer. Ferguson would get in an ugly 14.2 IP in 2015, and everything else since then has been outstanding, as the now 21-year-old starter has absolutely rocketed through the minors in a little more than two professional seasons, dominating the treacherous California League last year and posting the best ERA (2.87) in the circuit. This bears repeating, as it’s quite unheard of for a starting pitching prospect to move this quickly, let alone one drafted out of high school with a blown-out elbow. Ferguson operates with an above-average, sinking fastball in the low-90s velocity band. His high-70s curveball is the future out-pitch here, and it’s flashing plus more consistently now, alongside a changeup. Ferguson’s delivery is quiet, he repeats it well and the ball is difficult to pick up out of his hand, leading to excellent oppBA numbers up the entire ladder (career .238 rate; .213 in the upper minors). We’ll see if he comes out blazing, as first time starter are a bit of a wild card but make no mistake that kid is another great talent from a franchise that keeps producing them. He’s never struggled at any level and we highly doubt he’ll struggle here. Long term or now, this is an arm to bet on. 

Ferguson’s career line: 250.1 IP, 2.80 ERA, 3.5 BB’s/9, 9.7 K’s/9, 11 HR, .238 oppBA, 1.29 WHIP.

2018 STATS: Oklahoma City (AAA) — 2 g, 0-0, 2.25 ERA, 8.0 IP 13.5 K’s/9 0 HR, .194 oppBA.

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