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Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. There is no question that the Red Sox are among the best teams in the game but they’re still going to lose between 55 and 65 games so there will be spots to bet against them and we’ll roll the dice here. You see, the Red Sox are coming off a four-game set in Houston, which was capped off on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball in a game they would win 9-3. With a day off yesterday and with their leader, Mookie Betts on the rack, we may catch the Red Sox a little lackadaisical here. More importantly, a knuckleball pitcher with a weak history that is making his first start of the year after 16 relief innings cannot be priced in this range.

Steven Wright (RHP) completed his rehab assignment in mid-May (2018) following May 2017 knee surgery, then served his 15-game suspension (domestic abuse) and returned to the major league roster. He barely got his feet wet in 2017, only tossing 23 innings across five starts before the surgery, so there is not much relevant data to go on. Just to recap for a sec, Wright pitched 23 poor innings last year and has thrown 16 relief innings this year and is now priced like he’s Eduardo Rodriguez. Ridiculous.

Possible outcomes for Wright are as varied as the strike zone locations where his knuckleball is actually caught. You’ll see a 2.25 ERA in those 16 frames this year but it is the result of knuckleball magic (variance) and not skills. Wright has a long history of subpar first-pitch strikes, so-so swing and miss rate, and awful command. He has walked 10 batters in 16 frames this year and he throws an 83 MPH fastball. He’s R.A. Dickey at his worst but without the experience or pedigree. Wright’s age (34) and all of his weak skills confirm what the aberration is. Steven Wright is a must fade when priced in this range.

Boston is always overpriced and now they’ll face a unknown, weak starter at Fenway so the premium to bet them goes up. Needing an extra arm in mid-May after a double-header, the Tigers called up 26-year-old Artie Lewicki (RHP) to be their 26th man. Lewicki made his MLB debut last season after a solid season split between Erie and Toledo. He didn’t fare well. Lewicki allowed 23 baserunners in 10.1 innings, struggling to limit hard contact. A four-pitch pitcher, none of his offerings are particularly strong. He survives by changing speeds and eye levels, praying on a hitter’s aggression and inducing weak fly-ball contact. Prior, Lewicki was starting games for Triple-A Toledo. Since being called up in mid-May, Lewicki has appeared in six games, all in relief, covering 15 innings. In those 15 frames, Lewicki has a BB/K split of 5/12 with an ERA of 3.60. Look, we’re not expecting miracles out of Lewicki. He has a decent minor-league pedigree but not great. There is a good chance he gets whacked here but we’ll live with whatever he delivers because this wager has nothing to do with him. This is a straight fade on a weak knuckleball pitcher that has thrown 40 pro innings (including minors) over the past two years because of shoulder and knee problems not to mention problems with the law. His ERA last year was 8.25 over 24 innings and he’ll now face a very tough Detroit nine, who have been swinging the bats well all season.

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