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Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

8:05 PM EST. Not everything is as it appears when it comes to handicapping baseball (or any sport for that matter) and this is another example of just that. With his one win in 10 starts and a 7.85 ERA, Matt Moore (LHP) looks like a prime fade candidate on paper. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and say that Matt Moore is a quality pitcher because he’s not. His numbers not only this year but in previous seasons too, highlight the volatility of pitching. Outside of the hit%/strand% swing, the only minor differences in Moore’s base skills between this year and previous years are that his command, first-pitch strike rate, swinging strikes are all just a tad a lower yet his ERA this year is nearly 3 runs worse than his career ERA. His xERA string, though, says he not this bad and so a correction to the good is forthcoming. Regardless of whether improvement comes here, red flags always go up when the oddsmakers hang such an enticing number on a favorite that looks so good. Sean Manaea (LHP) against Matt Moore looks like a steal at -125 (at the time of this writing) but once again, we’ll put the buyer beware tag on it.

Sean Manaea’s 3.60 surface ERA blows Moore’s 7.85 surface ERA out of the water. Manaea and the A’s stick out today as a short priced favorite but don’t get caught playing it. You see, Sean Manaea is a pitcher in trouble and the oddsmakers know it. Under the hood, Manaea is struggling miserably with an 8% swing and miss rate over his last five starts. Over that span he has walked seven and struck out a lousy 14 batters over 25 frames. Remember, Mamaea is a starter that has had good stretches before. Last year for instance,  he prevailed through June but all that disappeared, as LHB and RHB alike tore into his 2nd half and now his volatility, xERA of 5.21 and reduced velocity lower our expectations. Manaea looks good on paper with that shiny 3.60 ERA but he’s in line for regression. Last night we suggested that Zach Godley (Arizona) over Derek Holland (SF) had a foul smell to it and this one has that same foul odor.

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