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Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

10:10 PM EST. Padres games usually finish up in the wee hours of the morning for most of the continent, so they do not get the same number of eyes on their games as the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies or these Braves. After a few down seasons, it might have been easy to forget that Atlanta is baseball royalty. This team was loaded in the 1990s and with that success combined with the vast presence of the TBS Superstation on both sides of the border, the Braves became a "national" team much like the powerhouse NFL squads of the 1970s where you had Dallas Cowboys or Pittsburgh Steelers fans in the home markets of other, less successful NFL franchises and many regions without a team. The point to all this is that now that the Braves are back to stacking up the wins, they once again have a tremendous pedigree in the market. Just like the Yankees, when there are great, they are generally going to be overvalued on most nights, especially when playing a team with little to no market presence. That applies here.

Atlanta's Sean Newcomb (LHP) is 6-1 with an ERA of 2.73, but those stats are a little misleading. Newcomb's xERA is more than a full run higher than his surface ERA, which shows that he's not been nearly as sharp as he seems at first glance. Sure Newcomb is striking guys out at a very nice clip, but he's also issuing way too many free passes with a walk rate of 4.31 BB/9. The 24-year-old Newcomb has the tools as a former first-round pick in 2014 and he was one of the critical pieces coming back to the Braves in the Andrelton Simmons trade. It's not that Newcomb is a mediocre arm, but he's undoubtedly overvalued as the winningest pitcher on a very popular first-place team.

Enter Jordan Lyles (RHP), who is making his sixth start of the season after beginning 2018 in the Padres bullpen. Lyles, too, is a former top draft pick after being selected eighth overall by the Astros way back in 2008. The 27-year-old was never able to meet expectations in Houston and was sent up and down from the big club multiple times before moving on to the Rockies where he started 32 games over two seasons before being sent to their bullpen last year. A big reason for Lyles' early success has been his ability to strike guys out. He has improved his strikeout rate significantly over the last few seasons after whiffing 47 batters in 49.1 frames. In Colorado, walks were a huge issue for Lyles, but the, have taken a big dip, as he's moved away from Coors Field to Petco Park. It remains to be seen if Lyles is finally reaching his potential or if his improved numbers are a factor of just getting the hell out of Denver but there is great upside in backing him and the Padres as long as they continue to be completely under the market's radar.

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