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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

10:10 PM EST. The Braves are 34-27 overall and are coming off a series in which they took three of four from the Nationals. San Diego, on the other hand has very little market credibility so it’s rather curious that the Padres a pooch here. That caught our eye. There are other moving parts here as well. This series for the Braves is sandwiched between their just completed home set with the Nats and their upcoming series at Chavez Ravine against the Dodgers. Furthermore, the Friars have quietly won four of five to run their record to 27-34. We also like the pitching matchup here.

Julio Teheran (RHP) carried a blend of both upside and risk heading into 2018. As a former top prospect with good raw stuff, Teheran had the ability to bounce-back from a down 2017 and on paper, he appears to be well on his way to doing that with a 4.03 ERA  and a 4-3 record after 12 starts. Problem is, his under the hood numbers are weak and don’t come close to matching his top-prospect pedigree. On the surface, Julio Teheran is better than he was last year when he posted the worst season of career in both stats and skills but underneath the surface, he’s the exact same stiff with a  long history of mediocre xERAs. Teheran has a weak BB/K split of 30/54 in 67 frames. Over his last five starts, he has a BB/K split of 12/19 over 30 innings with an xERA of 5.41. Throw in some horrible command sub-indicators and a velocity declining fastball that tops out at 89.6 MPH and you can see why we’re warning the risk-averse. Oddsmakers know he’s a stiff and have dangled the proverbial carrot in front of our noses. Some will bite and likely regret it.

Meanwhile, Clayton Richard (LHP) puts his three-game dominant start streak at home on the line against the league's best offense versus LHP according to OPS (.809). The Braves are seventh in runs created on the road (110), but rank in the bottom-third over the last 30 days. Clayton Richard kept the ball on the ground at an extremely high rate in May (60%) and also missed a lot of bats (11.5% swing and miss rate), skills that helped him generate a very good rating but a  63% strand rate and 20% hr/f were the reasons for his 4+ ERA. We like everything about this game; the situation, the pitching matchup, the books enticement on the Braves and the price on the run line.

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