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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

3:10 PM EST. Regular readers of this section are fully aware of our Coors Field angle, which we are absolutely committed to but we are not averse to making a tweak to improve our chances of a positive return. We have already proven that Coors rarely has games that end in a one-run victory and that few pitchers are immune to the park factors that are in play at this venue. It would therefore be reasonable to play that angle but why limit it to the underdog when there is tremendous value on the favorite from time to time. We will therefore continue with the Coors angle, that being spotting 1½-runs on all games played here but we’ll choose favorites when we see fit and this is one of those games.

You see, Alex Wood (LHP) is a legit starter with a 3.75 ERA, a 3.42 xERA with one of the best strikeout to walk ratios in the game. Wood has a BB/K split of 10/58 through 62 innings and his great skills in four of last five seasons underscore his consistency. Of equal or more importance is that the Dodgers have scored 11 and 12 runs respectively in the first two games of this series and those hot bats will face a weak starter with the most misleading surface stats in the entire league.

Chad Bettis (RHP) was limited to just 46 innings in 2017 after learning in March that his testicular cancer had spread. He spent most of season recovering and when he returned, his skills were flat. Bettis has begun 2018 in fine fashion, sporting a 3.68 ERA in 66 innings over 11 starts and the market is buying it. We’re not and neither should you, as things are likely going to get a lot worse for Chad Bettis. Bettis gave up 10 hits and six runs six innings in his last start v the Giants but that was just the start of regression catching up with him. His xERA suggests his ERA will continue rising. Bettis’ strikeout and swing and miss rates are terrible. It's rare to find a pitcher this K-averse in today's strikeout-heavy environment, and it really limits his upside. He has a mere 41 K’s in 66 innings, which is massive trouble waiting to happen at this park. A hefty dose of hit%/strand% good fortune has been vital, as evidenced by the wide xERA/ERA gap. Bettis has posted a shiny ERA and WHIP in the early stages of 2018 but it’s all smoke and mirrors. Barring adjustments, the shoddy underlying skills and lost velocity paint a rather gloomy picture and now would be a right time to sell high on that hugely false 3.68 ERA of his.

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