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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

10:10 PM EST. The Mariners took the opener of this series late last night after Mitch Haniger hit a solo walk-off shot in the bottom of the 13th inning to snatch a victory back after his team had blown a 3-0 lead. The "walk-off" angle is to bet against a team that is coming off a walk-off win the previous day. We have started profiting from this angle this season, as we’ve put it to play more (Pitt over St. Louis yesterday) and it fits here too. We don’t play in blindly every game but we’ll look at the pitching matchup for a crack and value and if it lines up with the “walk-off” angle, we’ll move in hard and it all applies here.   

Marco Gonzales' (LHP) stock is soaring and on the surface, it finally looks like he might be filling those big shoes he had coming into the majors as a first round pick in 2013. Gonzales is 5-3 this season with an ERA of 3.60 and his xERA is 3.40, which seems to suggest that what you see is what you get with him so far this season. In his last three games (19.1 IP), the 26-year-old hasn't allowed an earned run and in his last start he gave up just four hits over 6.2 frames in a win over the Rangers. All-in-all it appears Gonzales is a pretty solid starting pitcher but a deeper dive shows it all might not be rainbows and sunshine. The biggest blemish under Gonzales' hood is his below average swing and miss rate of 8.1%. That low number is in line with how he performed in the minors, which should be a concern. A regression in his K’s is likely coming and Gonzales doesn't have a single above average pitch by whiff rate, which means he's dancing on a very fine line. A downturn in strikeouts isn't the only concern, as Gonzales brings the fifth highest BABIP of all of today's starters and that combined with his 74.7 strand percentage shows he's ready to blow up at any moment. At the end of the day, there is a reason the pitching-aware Cardinals gave up on him and it's because he's just not that good.

Is there a starting pitcher on the board today that's had worse luck lately than Chris Archer (RHP)? The Rays' ace has allowed just one run over his last 18.2 frames, which covers his last three trips to the bump. However, despite the quality effort, Archer has not been rewarded, as his team has only been able to cash in one victory over that time bringing his record this season to a pedestrian 3-3. A 4.29 ERA also doesn't do much to dispel the notion that Archer is still in the midst of a free fall that started two seasons ago, but that narrative could not be further from the truth. Firstly, Archers' xERA is 3.80, which is far more respectable than his surface number. Secondly, he's still striking out batters at a high frequency with 70 Ks in 71.1 frames to just 24 free passes. Finally, despite not racking up the wins over the last three seasons, Archer's strikeout and quality start numbers put him alongside the best pitchers in the game. Would Scherzer, Kluber or Sale be a pooch in this spot? We think not. It's not often we get to buy low on one of the game's best pitchers, but until there is a market correction, we'll continue to back Archer and his elite skills when the price is right. The price is right here.

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