BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -102 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction +100  5DIMES +101

Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

10:10 PM EST. Buy-low, sell high is our mantra over here and we’ll apply that to this game, as the Phillies went into Los Angeles last night and beat Clayton Kershaw to run their record to 31-23. Meanwhile, the Giants are eight games under .500 and have lost six of their last eight games. The pitching matchup also favors the Phillies and so there you have it. What looks like the biggest bargain of the day, that being Philly less than 10 cents over San Francisco, probably isn’t everything you think it is. The market will now see Philadelphia with Nick Pivetta (RHP) starting (1.42 ERA over his last three starts and 3.26 overall ERA) going up against Chris Stratton and his 4.97 ERA (6.00 ERA over his last three starts) and be very enticed into betting the wrong side.

Nick Pivetta’s stock is soaring right now. Not only have his stats been really good (3.23 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), so have his skills (10.2 K’s/9) and his command sub-indicators suggest he can keep them going too (11.3% swing and miss rate %, 66% first-pitch strikes, 33% ball%). However, we have our concerns, as Pivetta pitched to an 8-10 record last year with a 6.02 ERA over 133 innings. It was a rude awakening in rookie season and now he’s killing it. His 40%/38% groundball/fly-ball split is shaky. His first-pitch strike rate is showing massive signs of regression (66% overall, 56% last three games and 47% in his last start). Pivetta looks very good on paper and even his under the hood numbers look pretty good something doesn’t smell right about this start or his sub-indicators over his last three starts are very troubling to oddsmakers.

Chris Stratton has an impressive x3.81 ERA over his last five starts. He does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and in the yard and he’s only allowed eight jacks over 11 starts. He also has 21 K’s over his last 26 frames and posted a 15% swing and miss rate in his last start. Stratton’s surface numbers are not pretty, which makes him an underpriced commodity but for whatever reason, when he starts, the Giants usually win. We’re always aware or try to be aware of games that look too good (on paper) and Philadelphia looks like today’s sucker bet. You’ve been warned.  

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.