Philadelphia @ L.A. DODGERS
Philadelphia +150 over L.A. DODGERS

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +142 BET365  +150 SportsInteraction +155 5DIMES +155

Posted at 11:35 AM EST. 

7:35 PM EST. Note the early start time in Los Angeles. Also note that we have no idea which team is going to win this game but what we do know is that the price on Aaron Nola (RHP) here is preposterous. Aaron Nola might be the Cy Young winner taking back a price here that guys like Seth Lugo are taking back.

Look, we get that Clayton Kershaw is considered to be the best pitcher on Earth but Kershaw is coming off the 15-day DL to make this start. He also has a 3.24 ERA at home and one win in seven starts because the Dodgers can’t get him any run support. Kershaw’s win expectation for this game is certainly not much higher, if at all, than Philadelphia’s win expectation with Nola going. Furthermore, L.A. will head to Colorado after this one to face the Rockies and one has to believe that all those Dodgers hitting in the .225 to .250 range can’t wait to arrive to the place where batters go to fatten their batting averages.

With all due respect to Kershaw, he might be the second best starter in this game, as Aaron Nola takes a backseat to nobody. Nola has tremendous numbers across the board. He has a BB/K split of 17/67 in 71 frames, which equates to 8.5 K’s/9. He has a 15% swing and miss rate and 71% first-pitch strike rate. His batted ball profile of 52% grounders, 20% line-drives and 28% fly-balls is also one of the best profiles in the game. Nola comes in with a 6-2 record and a skills supported 2.27 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. If Aaron Nola was on the Astros, Yanks, Cubbies or Red Sox, he would be a pick-em in this game but because he plays for somebody else, we get this rock-star at a price we may not see again for years.

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Our Pick

Philadelphia +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

San Diego -1½ +130 over Milwaukee
Pittsburgh +107 over N.Y. Mets
Cincinnati +116 over Seattle