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Posted at 11:35 AM EST. 

10:10 PM EST. This is another great example of surface ERA’s misleading the market into playing a bad favorite. Mike Minor (LHP) comes into this game with a 5.63 ERA after 10 starts while Wade LeBlanc (LHP) has posted a 2.70 ERA after five starts. Those two misleading ERA’s provide us with another great opportunity to play an underrated underdog against an overpriced favorite.

Mike Minor has a BB/K split of 12/50 through 54 frames. Minor is a quality starter with amped velocity (+4 to 94 MPH) and slider usage (+11 to 36%) and is on the verge of some brilliant efforts. His line drive rate of 18% is one of the best in the game. His strikeout rate, command, first-pitch strike rate and swinging strikes are all well above league average too. These skills are ready for a big time correction to the good and as soon as Minor’s extremely unlucky 61% strand rate normalizes, his surface ERA will drop significantly. This is a premium buy-low target.

Wade Leblanc is a premium sell-high target. It’s nice that he has a 2.70 ERA after five starts but don’t buy it, as he is a 33-year-old journeyman that has been dropped by more teams more times than Roseanne Barr has been dropped by her Twitter followers. Leblanc’s fastball tops off at 86.7 MPH. He has a weak 8% swing and miss rate so those 31 K’s in 40 frames are not supported. Leblanc has had short term success in the past before the wheels fell off and it’s just a matter of time before they inevitably fall off again. Last year for instance, he rode a career-best groundball rate to some early success as a low-leverage reliever, but then came 25 earned runs in 27.2 innings from June to mid-Aug before he landed on the DL. He was then waived in late August and no one volunteered to pay short money owed to LHP who can't get out LHB. Wade Leblanc is a lifelong fill-in without any chance of long-term success. His next stop is involuntary retirement but because he has a good ERA in a very small sample size, he’s priced like he’s Chris Archer. Fade.

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