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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. 

6:35 PM EST. Note the slightly earlier start time for this one.

Sometimes it’s hard to justify things, especially for us, as we are always looking for live dogs. This game is either the sucker bet of the day or the Yankees remain grossly overvalued but we’re going to trust it’s the latter because Luis Severino has been outstanding and so, too, have the New York Yankees.

Luis Severino (RHP) has put aside fears that his 2017 breakout was a fluke. He has been one of the AL's best starters so far this year (2.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). Those stats aren't flukes either. His skills have been superb with 10.5 K’s/9, 2.2 BB’s/9 and 48% grounders. If he and the Yanks win here, good on them but we are not passing a chance to grab the visitors at this insane price.

Dallas Keuchel (LHP) is a control artist and groundball machine. He has walked just 18 batters in 70 innings while posting an elite 57% groundball rate. Although he’s not striking out as many now as he did in his 2015 Cy Young campaign, he stil has 53 K’s and a 10% swing and miss rate so it’s not like he can’t get a K when he needs one. Keuchel throws a heavy sinker 47% of the time. The sinker induces grounders at a 75% clip, but he also sports a 50%+ groundball rate on all of his other pitches (four-seam, slider, cutter, change-up). With a fastball that averages less than 89 mph, Dallas Keuchel certainly isn't your prototypical front-of-the-rotation starter but his combination of swing-and-miss off-speed pitches, and extreme groundball inducing stuff, gets the job done with flying colors. With an xERA of 3.76 (3.39 actual ERA) and playing for one of the best offenses in the game, Keuchel and the Astronauts are too dangerous to pass up a price like this. Damn straight Houston can win here too.

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