Chicago @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH +120 over Chicago

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +120 BET365  +120 SportsInteraction +120 5DIMES +120

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. Is there a pitcher in this market more overpriced than Kyle Hendricks (RHP) or a team whose stock is as inflated as the Cubs? Sure, the Cubbies' starter has been a steady hand for years, but Hendricks' skills are eroding and his price isn't going down. Hendricks sports a 3.16 ERA on the surface, but his xERA is almost a half a point higher, while his strikeout rate is down from 2017. That shiny ERA is a product of Hendricks' totally unsustainable 80.8 strand percentage. Combine that with his mid-80s fastball and a swing and miss rate of 9% and you have a recipe for a risky bet especially when spotting a price on the road. That risk is even more significant when you consider that the Pirates are the most disciplined group of hitters in the National League.

We backed Joe Musgrove (RHP) in his season debut last week and we were not disappointed, as he flamed seven Cardinals over seven innings of shutout ball. Musgrove also did not offer any free passes to the Red Birds in that outing. Musgrove is a former first-round pick, but could not crack the Astros World Series winning rotation with any consistency last year, so they sent him to the bullpen where he was able to craft a devastating slider which he put to use in that first start. Musgrove's fastball looks to be improved over last season as well, as he's added more velocity and was consistently hitting the mid-90s on Friday night. Musgrove can throw strikes at a high frequency and he's done it at every level. We preach about playing value and taking back a price on a pitcher as good as Musgrove fits that formula to a T. Jump in now while his price is still low because once the market catches on to how good Musgrove really is, these opportunities will be long gone.

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Our Pick

PITTSBURGH +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110