Chicago @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH +105 over Chicago

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +104 BET365  +105 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +105

Posted at 9:35 PM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. In regards to market perception, the Cubs are the Cubs are the Cubs and Jon Lester (LHP) is one of the more reliable, recognizable and consistent pitchers in baseball while the Pirates will send a rookie out there with three major-league starts to his name. Furthermore, Lester has a 2.37 ERA after 10 starts and a 1.45 ERA over his last three starts. Despite all that, the Cubs are a small price today (Cubs were -115 this morning) so before you pull the trigger on them, you had better ask why. We’ll tell you why.

The Cubs are a small price today because Jon Lester remains one of the most overrated pitchers in the game. Lester is reaping the benefits of a 26% hit-rate and 85% strand rate to that 2.37 ERA despite having a 4.34 xERA. His owns a 1.52 ERA over his last five starts, although only one of those has been a dominant start. Pittsburgh can go way right-handed with its batting order, and that cuts into Lester’s best stuff. The opposing Pirates have a .815 OPS versus left-handed pitching which is third best in MLB. They are also hitting well at home where they are averaging 5.2 runs per game.

Nick Kingham (RHP) s coming off a loss to the Padres in his last start on May 19 before being sent back down to Indianapolis. As expected, Kingham was one-and-done in his second stint with the Pirates in 2018. We expect he'll hop on that Indianapolis-to-Pittsburgh/Pittsburgh to Indianapolis shuttle again this season, as the Pirates rotation just got Joe Musgrove back. This is Kingham’s ninth pro campaign after being drafted in 2010 out of high school, and 2018 has showcased his best skills. In four starts with Triple-A Indianapolis, before his first call-up, Kingham put up a 1.59 ERA with 10.7 K’s/9. That earned him a short-term promotion necessitated by the Pirates’ double-header on April 25th against the Cardinals. On April 29th, all Kingham did was take a perfect game into the seventh inning in his MLB debut. Nick Kingham is a solid prospect who has delivered a 3.44 ERA after three starts with a BB/K split of 2/21 over 18 frames. More importantly, his elite skills over those three starts have the support of his command sub-indicators (12.1% swing and miss rate, 69% first-pitch strike rate and 33% ball%). Once again, this wager is not only about fading Lester but it’s also about recognizing a “trouble spot” for what appears to be a short-priced favorite for the Jon Lester/Chicago Cubs combo. Buyer beware.

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Our Pick

PITTSBURGH +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110