BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +100 BET365  +105 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES  +101

Posted at 10:45 AM EST

7:15 PM EST. Lance Lynn (RHP) has some ugly surface stats. He comes into this game with a 2-4 record after nine games started with an ERA of 6.34. On the road, Lynn’s ERA is worse at 8.14. This market is heavily influenced by ERA’s which are becoming almost as misleading as wins and losses. Good pitchers have good ERA’s, we get that but ERA’s do not tell the truth about so many weak pitchers with solid ERA’s and so many good pitchers with poor ERA’s. Both Lance Lynn and Jakob Junis fall into that narrative here.

Lance Lynn has 45 K’s in 44 innings to go along with an elite 52% groundball rate. A pitcher that is averaging 9 K’s/9 with an upper tier groundball rate does not equate to a 6.34 ERA. Lance Lynn’s xERA is 4.31 and it was 2.71 in his last start. Lynn has been the victim of an unlucky 66% strand rate and shaky command, as he has walked 30 batters over his 44 frames. However, he also has an acceptable 62% first-pitch strike rate and his control is getting better with each passing game. Remember, Lynn returned from Tommy John surgery in 2017 and it’s been said that control is the most difficult pitching component to get back. Lance Lynn is striking out guys, he features a HR-suffocating sinker and his xERA is improving with each passing game. His surface ERA is in line for a big correction to the good.

By contrast, Jakob Junis comes in with a 3.52 ERA after 10 starts and the Royals have won his last two games (against the Cardinals and Yankees) and three of his last four. After beating the Yanks and Cards combined with his solid ERA, Junis’ stock is on the rise and we’re selling. Jake Junis has a .253 BABIP and 84.7% strand rate and those two luck driven numbers have his ERA much lower than it should be. What that doesn’t reveal is that Junis has been tagged for 11 jacks in 54 innings. Do we assume that Junis will have much worse numbers in the future because of the BABIP and strand rate, or will the regression in those categories be offset by the contrasting regression in home run rate, and the fact that he rarely walks hitters? xERA comes down firmly on the side of Bad Junis. He is clearly below average in groundball rate and swinging strikes. Despite the promising 3.75 K/BB ratio, there are far more balls in play here than xERA likes to see, and in order to succeed in that context, Junis would need to be great at limiting damage on contact. With extra-base knocks making up half of the hits against him, that hasn’t been the case. In summarizing, Junis has been below average at generating whiffs. With a poor framing catcher and a Royals defense that is far from the elite unit of old, it’s hard to expect the team to keep generating outs for Junis at an above-average rate. There’s enough of a good start and promising (but misleading) strikeout-to-walk numbers to sell high on Junis and his xERA suggests that would be wise.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.